The current market is transitioning from deleveraging to moderate expansion. Driven by spot demand, both prices and open interest are rising in tandem, indicating solid structural upward momentum. Although short-term fluctuations persist, they do not alter the positive mid-term trend. Market sentiment is gradually improving; thus, following the trend is preferable to chasing short-term extremes. The medium- to long-term fundamentals are improving, but caution is warranted regarding negative divergence at high levels and unusual shifts in volume and price. It is recommended to monitor trading volume and open interest dynamics, adopt a buy-on-dip strategy during pullbacks, and implement strict risk control by adhering to take-profit and stop-loss levels to prevent temporary drawdowns. The market is expected to maintain a range-bound upward trend, and attention should be paid to intermediate moving averages and previous lows as key support levels.

Recently, the market has smoothly shifted from a deleveraging phase to moderate expansion. The contango market is driving long positions, and as negative divergence has yet to be reversed, prices and open interest are rising steadily in tandem, indicating that the current upward momentum relies more on spot demand rather than excessive borrowing. Meanwhile, overall market sentiment has improved, and multiple on-chain and market indicators are showing signs of inflection. This is a critical time to test the market's patience—a key juncture where technical and sentiment factors validate each other.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Although market volatility persists, a trend-following investment logic dominates, with participants more inclined toward a 'buy in bull markets, sell in bear markets' strategy. It is difficult for short-term speculation to accurately capture extreme points, but trading with the trend can effectively reduce transaction costs and psychological stress. After about a month of consolidation, optimism is gradually building; although there is some chasing of rising prices, the risks remain relatively controllable.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, macro and industry fundamentals are still improving, and investment approaches that combine value and trend factors are more resilient. However, risks from fund inflows and negative divergence at high levels—such as sudden reversals—should be monitored closely. It is advisable to keep a close watch on changes in trading volume and open interest, strictly adhere to take-profit and stop-loss rules, and guard against the impact of short-term speculation on long-term positions.

Refinable

Pimco warns Iran war could lead Federal Reserve to raise rates

Jerome Powell Is Stepping Down: What Did He Accomplish as Fed Chair, and Where Did He Go Wrong?

Goldman Sachs has pushed back its expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut to December 2026, citing inflationary pressures as the main reason.

Analysis: US April CPI may rise to 3.56%, Bitcoin faces risk of correction

Analysis: If the US CPI exceeds expectations, Bitcoin may pull back to around $70K.

Analysis: If the US April CPI exceeds expectations, Bitcoin may pull back to around $70K.

Next Week's Macro Outlook: Important Window for US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks, Waller Officially Takes Over as Fed Chair

Next week's macro outlook: Waller is about to take over the helm of the Federal Reserve, and gold awaits the CPI "verdict."

U.S. April CPI is expected to surge 0.6% month-over-month, consumer confidence falls to a historic low.

Trump announces three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine with prisoner swap

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