SPI currently faces significant liquidity bottlenecks. In the short term, insufficient trading depth and high slippage risks exert downward pressure on the price. Structurally, driving underlying contract innovation—such as introducing perpetual contracts or mechanisms that enhance capital efficiency—would be a key catalyst for medium- to long-term value re-rating. Market sentiment has tentatively warmed, but confirmation signals are needed through sustained volume expansion and optimized buy-side structure. In the short term, the trend remains weak and volatile, with a reasonable attention range of 0.82–0.95. It is advised to approach the short term with caution and to wait for opportunities brought by platform technical upgrades and substantial liquidity changes in the medium to long term.

Industry critics point out that the current mainstream binary options model has structural limitations in terms of capital efficiency and liquidity, and urgently needs to evolve toward a perpetual contract model. If the platform where SPI resides can adopt this approach for underlying architecture redesign, it will help attract broader capital and market maker participation, enhancing overall market depth and trading efficiency. From a value investing perspective, if such fundamental technological innovations are implemented, SPI will gain a clear long-term competitive advantage.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

Latest analysis shows that short-term prediction markets are thinly traded, with low liquidity leading to frequent increases in price spread and slippage; market making strategies require active inventory risk management, resulting in a high entry barrier. For SPI, in the current environment, a lack of sufficient low-cost market making support may intensify short-term price volatility and trading costs, and investor sentiment is vulnerable to large unilateral orders and unexpected events.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Recent research suggests that signs of initial improvement are emerging in the crypto market, and trading activity and capital flows may be approaching a turning point. If subsequent data continue to confirm this trend, SPI could see a phase rebound amid improved sentiment and trading atmosphere. However, more trading volume and position data are needed to confirm the trend's stability. Investors should watch for breakthroughs in trading volume and changes in bid/ask structure to capture medium-term entry opportunities.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

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Pimco warns Iran war could lead Federal Reserve to raise rates

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Analysis: If the US CPI exceeds expectations, Bitcoin may pull back to around $70K.

Analysis: If the US April CPI exceeds expectations, Bitcoin may pull back to around $70K.

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Next week's macro outlook: Waller is about to take over the helm of the Federal Reserve, and gold awaits the CPI "verdict."

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