Against the backdrop of global risk appetite recovery and sustained institutional inflows, BITZ demonstrates a strong short-term structural advantage; however, the current rise in leverage and limited liquidity may amplify volatility risks. It is recommended to closely track the effectiveness of key support levels for mainstream assets (such as Bitcoin). If BTC remains firmly within this year’s important range, the upper resistance is at 0.175 and the lower support is at 0.123; otherwise, BITZ’s high position in the short term will be vulnerable, requiring strict position control. In the medium and long term, as the compliance process and institutional participation increase, BITZ’s asset carrying capacity will be strengthened, making it suitable for buying on dips and dynamically adjusting position weightings.

Overall sentiment in Asian markets is recovering, mainstream assets continue to rise, and investor risk appetite has increased, positively driving the high-yield seeking characteristics of altcoins. Bullish signals in the options market are increasing, with rising demand for call options, indicating that market expectations for future volatility are growing and leaning bullish, thereby adding to active buying interest. Against this backdrop, as a high-beta asset, BITZ is likely to benefit from the spillover effect during capital rotation, showing a strong short-term structural edge.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

As the industry shifts from extreme volatility to compliance and institutionalization, capital is gradually accumulating in the CeFi sector, and whale trading activity is significantly increasing. Large one-off deposits at leading exchanges are showing geometric growth. Meanwhile, asset tokenization and the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem offer more application scenarios and liquidity support for altcoins. Sustained injection of institutional demand helps BITZ gain more custody and market-making services in the process of market consolidation, thus enhancing its medium- and long-term value support.

The crypto industry is transitioning from extreme volatility to institutionalization: Bitcoin's market value fell 8%, underperforming gold and tech stocks. Capital is increasingly concentrated in compliant CeFi sectors, with intensified structural differentiation in the primary market. A wave of mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs signals accelerated consolidation in 2026, where larger players will absorb smaller ones.

RootData 2025 Web3 Industry Annual Report

CryptoQuant data reveals that Binance's average monthly single Bitcoin inflow has surged nearly 34 times since early 2021, reaching about 29.7 BTC per transaction. This significant increase indicates heightened activity from large holders or whales on the platform, suggesting that institutional or major investors are accelerating their Bitcoin deposits into the exchange.

Data: Binance's average monthly single Bitcoin inflow size surged 34 times, with a significant increase in whale activity.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

Current market leverage usage is rising, and perpetual contract funding rates remain positive, indicating that traders generally favor buying on dips. Should prices experience consecutive declines, highly concentrated long positions risk liquidation, potentially triggering a chain of sell-offs. BITZ's liquidity is relatively limited, so if the broader market faces a sharp correction, BITZ will be under pronounced price pressure. Short-term investors need to closely monitor funding rates and liquidity indicators to guard against violent volatility from forced liquidation.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Mainstream assets quickly find buying support after breaking key support levels, indicating strong demand near major moving averages. BITZ tends to be positively correlated with Bitcoin; when the latter holds key support, BITZ can capitalize on this to form a bottom. If Bitcoin drops sharply, altcoins, including BITZ, will be the first to face pressure as risk appetite declines. Therefore, continuous attention to the effectiveness of mainstream asset support levels is needed to assess BITZ’s relative strength performance.

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela reaching a peak early Saturday, Bitcoin's price remained resilient, stabilizing around $90,000 after briefly dipping below that level. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted Bitcoin's price staying above the 21-day moving average suggests potential continued gains in January. Jamie Cox from HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP indicated the market's reaction to the Venezuela situation may be limited, with possible impacts from the upcoming OPEC meeting.

Analysis: Market reaction to the situation in Venezuela may be limited, Bitcoin price remains strong.

Bitz

Here’s why the crypto market is falling today

Lagarde speech: Interest rates best tool we can use

The Fed’s PCE Data Used to Measure Inflation Has Been Released! Here’s Bitcoin’s (BTC) Initial Reaction!

Lagarde speech: Debated at length a hike

Lagarde discussed various options, including the possibility of an interest rate hike.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to its highest level in nearly three years

After the release of U.S. economic data, the probability expectation of an interest rate hike slightly increased.

US Q1 GDP price index preliminary reading at 3.6%, expected 3.8%

US Q1 PCE Price Index annualized quarterly rate preliminary value 4.5%, exceeding expectations

US Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year Rises to 3.2% in March

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