Currently, C1USD is benefiting in the short term from the overall market sentiment recovery, capital inflows, and increased long positions on-chain which have driven rebound momentum. Technical support is around major moving averages (reference range ±5%). However, caution is needed as the mid- and long-term market structure has yet to stabilize, and indicators such as total market cap, altcoin momentum, and macro cycles have not significantly reversed. Volatility and profit-taking pressure persist. It is recommended to cautiously follow the rebound in the short term, especially if key resistance levels (primarily near platform resistance areas, such as the 1.22-1.25 range) are broken. For mid- and long-term positions, avoid chasing highs and focus on position management and drawdown risk prevention.

From the candlestick chart, C1USD has recently been consolidating in a narrow range around major moving averages. Bulls and bears are intertwined, but there has been no clear downside breakout, suggesting short-term support remains solid. On the macro side, Bitcoin surpassed $90,000 earlier this year, and Ethereum and major altcoins staged significant rallies, boosting market liquidity and buying confidence. On-chain data and options positions both show evidence of increased long positions, indicating active capital deployment. This series of signals, combined with short-term liquidity improvement, provides C1USD with a rebound opportunity, and bullish sentiment may continue in the near term.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Despite the current positive sentiment, the overall market cap has yet to revisit previous highs, alt season indicators remain sluggish, and fear sentiment still dominates, indicating that capital has not fully entered the market. Long-term macro indicators and trading fee rates suggest that bullish momentum is difficult to sustain. Highly volatile assets have seen brief surges but were followed by sharp corrections, warning investors to remain alert to volatility. If key resistance levels are not breached, C1USD may face increased risk of intensified choppiness in the mid- to long-term.

Currency One USD

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