GOLD tokens have entered a short-term technical adjustment; key support should focus on recent lows and moving average positions. It is recommended to track volume anomalies to seize potential rebound opportunities. In the medium term, pressure on the US dollar is driving continuous inflows of safe-haven funds into gold, with clear institutional positioning. GOLD is expected to maintain its upward trend—strategy should focus on buying in batches during pullbacks. In the long term, be alert to risks that new technologies may boost gold supply and weaken its scarcity; when allocating assets, it is advisable to moderately diversify between gold and other scarce assets like Bitcoin to robustly hedge against potential structural changes.

On the latest trading day, spot metals experienced a retracement of over 1%. Short-term buying power contracted significantly, causing short-term moving averages to turn downward and forming key resistance zones. Meanwhile, large funds took this opportunity to buy gold tokens XAUt and PAXG at low prices, investing over $12 million with more than $400,000 in unrealized profits, highlighting institutional investors' confirmation of bottom price recovery. While market sentiment remains cautiously shifting, the overall minor recovery signals need further data confirmation. Short-term traders should focus on changes in trading volumes around previous lows and moving average support areas to capture potential reversal opportunities.

On January 8, precious metals declined broadly, with spot silver dropping 3.82% and spot platinum falling nearly 8% at one point. Gold also decreased by over 1% during the session, according to Bitget market data.

Precious metals fell across the board, with spot silver down 3.82%.

A whale recently spent $12.42 million buying gold tokens XAUt and PAXG. Since early October, the whale has purchased 2,371.4 XAUt and 559.7 PAXG, averaging $4,239 each. With rising gold prices, the whale has already gained a profit of $410,000.

A certain whale recently spent $12.42 million to purchase gold tokens XAUt and PAXG.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

From a medium-term perspective, the persistent pressure on the US dollar is strengthening gold assets' appeal as a safe haven. Many institutional opinions indicate that gold has recently become the best-performing major asset of the year. In 2025, precious metals lead among all asset classes in gains, while highly volatile crypto assets present divergence in returns, with capital gradually concentrating in gold sectors that offer high compliance and strong safe-haven attributes. The sustained accumulation of medium-term buying momentum is expected to provide stable trend support for GOLD tokens as the US dollar further depreciates and geopolitical risk events unfold.

Ray Dalio highlights a major economic cycle shift where the US dollar's decline leads to a restructuring of gold's dominance. US stocks have significantly underperformed compared to non-US markets and gold, with gold emerging as the best-performing major asset.

Ray Dalio: The Great Cycle Fission and the Reconstruction of Gold Hegemony Amid the Dollar's Retreat

In 2025, gold and silver surged significantly, leading the asset rankings, while tech stocks entered a consolidation phase after reaching new highs. Bitcoin, after a brief peak, declined and recorded negative returns, losing its previous appeal.

The Global Top 10 Asset Shakeup in 2025: Why Has Bitcoin Lost Its Shine?

The crypto industry is transitioning from extreme volatility to institutionalization: Bitcoin's market value fell 8%, underperforming gold and tech stocks. Capital is increasingly concentrated in compliant CeFi sectors, with intensified structural differentiation in the primary market. A wave of mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs signals accelerated consolidation in 2026, where larger players will absorb smaller ones.

RootData 2025 Web3 Industry Annual Report

In the long term, gold's scarcity is facing potential challenges. Breakthroughs in technology might enable the conversion of mercury into gold through specific fusion processes. If large-scale commercial production is achieved, physical supply could increase, placing downward pressure on safe-haven pricing. In contrast, Bitcoin's supply cap mechanism is both transparent and predictable, with its deflationary attributes offering greater certainty. When building a long-term value storage portfolio, it is recommended to pay attention to potential supply risks driven by actual demand and technological innovation while allocating to gold tokens, and to appropriately diversify into different scarce asset classes to balance returns and risks.

Samson Mow emphasized Bitcoin's fixed scarcity of 21 million coins, contrasting it with gold, whose scarcity may soon be flexible due to a new fusion-based method to transmute mercury into gold. This breakthrough could increase gold supply and reduce its value, while Bitcoin's supply remains mathematically capped and immutable, making it a more stable store of value enforced by mathematics and global consensus rather than physical extraction.

'You Can't Transmute Anything Into Bitcoin,' Samson Mow Warns

GOLD

The US Navy will “shortly” begin a blockade of ships entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post.

The US and Iran’s failure to strike a peace deal over the weekend is set to weigh on market sentiment and lift demand for safe haven assets on Monday.

Analyst: No agreement reached between the US and Iran, Bitcoin may fall back to $65,000.

Analyst: Unsuccessful U.S.-Iran negotiations could push oil prices higher again, and risk sentiment could be hit once more.

Next week's macro outlook: The situation in the Middle East has once again plunged into a black hole of uncertainty, and the US stock market is entering earnings season.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Forecast After Release of First US CPI Print Since US-Iran War

CryptoQuant analyst: If the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on and impacts inflation, the Fed may have no choice but to raise interest rates.

Digital Assets See Modest Gains; US Inflation Data Reinforces High Interest Rate Outlook

Ray Dalio issues economic “war thesis” showing dollar-debasement against Bitcoin

Peter Schiff Blasts Trump ‘Victory’ Spin on Iran War, Economy Out

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