Currently, LOOPY is driven by short-term market sentiment, with increasing momentum for a staged rebound, but the market has not yet exited its structurally downward pattern, leading to heightened volatility and greater operational risks. Core indicators such as trading volume and transaction fees reveal that there has not been a fundamental improvement in medium- to long-term macro liquidity, lacking a solid foundation for sustained growth. The concentration of platform liquidity is rising, making market liquidity fragile and susceptible to abrupt, severe fluctuations. Investors are advised to focus on the rhythm of short-term rebounds, use limit orders and build positions in batches, and strictly control their exposure; for the medium to long term, it is better to remain on the sidelines and only consider increasing allocation after a significant macro liquidity or fundamental turning point occurs. If the price fails to decisively break through the key resistance zone (reference range: 2.10-2.30) in the short term, chasing the rally is not recommended.

Recent signs suggest improving market conditions, with investors’ risk appetite rebounding and a greater willingness to allocate funds to small-cap tokens. Technically, LOOPY’s intraday trading volume has expanded, and after fluctuating near key moving averages, the price has briefly rallied. In the short term, improved liquidity and accumulating market sentiment will provide LOOPY with opportunities for staged rebounds. However, caution is warranted, as the market has not exited its structural bottom; sentiment-driven rebounds are typically accompanied by rapid ups and downs, making it suitable to focus on short-term long-short trading rhythms.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Although some investors are optimistic about a rebound driven by improved annual liquidity, observations on market transaction volumes and transaction fees indicate that the medium- to long-term macro cycle remains under downward pressure. The mainstream view is that the current bull market pivot has not yet been established; if macro liquidity does not improve as expected, LOOPY will face broader selling pressure. On the other hand, large institutions adhering to value and trend investing logic can provide bottom support for LOOPY through long-term capital inflows. Overall, for LOOPY to stabilize and attract sustained positioning, there must be a substantial inflection point in macro liquidity or industry fundamentals.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Recent liquidity research shows that short-cycle market activity is generally low, with a significant increase in concentration across tokens. For LOOPY, current trading volumes are focused within a few time slots and among leading traders. If the market direction changes, the risk of liquidity gaps can lead to sharp price swings. Traders should pay attention to the pace of liquidity releases, use limit orders or staggered position-building strategies to avoid slippage from centralized matching, and monitor large order placements and cancellations to guard against price plunges caused by liquidity vacuums.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

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