Amid heightened USD volatility, macrostructural adjustment, and ongoing regulatory wrestling, TRUST is constrained by a highly volatile environment and cautious capital allocation. The absence of new positive catalysts has led to short-term demand turning to a wait-and-see attitude, with price oscillating in the 0.065–0.073 range. Technically, after a false breakout, the 0.065 downside support is crucial, while upward resistance at 0.075–0.077 needs to be closely monitored. Fund flows are overwhelmingly rotating toward Bitcoin, with risk-reward margins for small to mid-cap tokens narrowing. It is advisable to strengthen risk controls and wait for the implementation of fundamental security and trust mechanisms before increasing allocations. In the short term, range trading strategies should prevail.

Recently, market focus has shifted from isolated risk events to the USD's pricing path for such events. The USD's core driver has moved from interest rate differentials to policy credibility and liquidity trends, causing capital to continuously switch between asset classes. This logic also permeates TRUST, resulting in false breakouts and rapid pullbacks in its price in response to short-term USD fluctuations, leading to increasingly erratic short-term volatility.

The market is shifting focus from risk events to how the US dollar prices these events, entering a phase of exchange rate-driven risk redistribution. The dollar's core drivers now hinge on policy credibility and liquidity paths rather than just interest rate differentials or safe-haven demand. With geopolitical tensions and inflation influencing policy, the dollar remains volatile without a clear trend, impacting Bitcoin's price action by amplifying false breakouts and liquidity shifts rather than driving a sustained trend.

Bitunix analyst: The US dollar's pricing power swings between policy credibility and the outcome of the war, with the market entering a risk redistribution phase dominated by exchange rates.

The market appears chaotic not due to war or interest rates, but because of a fundamental issue: trust in policy credibility. The Fed's perceived loss of direction, ongoing Middle East tensions turning into economic suppression, and global policy desynchronization have led to a "credit split" era. Market movements lack clear trends, driven by shifting trust between policy and risk. Future market direction hinges on restoring Fed credibility, genuine Middle East easing, and synchronized central bank policies.

Bitunix analyst decodes: The current market appears chaotic, but what truly deters funds from entering is not war or interest rates, but a more fundamental issue—whose words can still be trusted?

From systemic adjustments to regulatory friction, the market is currently experiencing both macroeconomic downturn and a contest across regulatory frameworks. During structural corrections, professional institutions have strengthened their forward-looking assessments of the macro environment and compliance risks, resulting in sustained caution for allocating to high-volatility assets. In this environment, TRUST lacks strong positive catalysts, with short-term allocation demand tending to be on hold and finding it difficult to attract sustained incremental capital.

This article systematically analyzes the current crypto market downturn from the perspectives of the macro environment, institutional behavior, market structure, and industry trends. Combining Huobi HTX research insights, it offers forward-looking views on potential future turning points and long-term trends, aiming to provide market participants with a more structured framework for judgment.

Slump or Opportunity? The Crypto Market Enters a "Repricing Moment": The Macro Logic Behind the Slump, Structural Transformation, and Future Turning Points

Data shows that Bitcoin is entering a large-scale long accumulation phase, while short-term short costs have reached a new high of 19%, and sustained ETF inflows have boosted market confidence. Short-term holder profitability has improved, yet the overall cost range remains a downside cap. Current fund flows into Bitcoin have amplified volatility synchrony among mainstream assets and exerted pressure on risk appetite for small to mid-cap tokens like TRUST—limiting their upside during risk rallies and controlling downside during risk retreats.

Despite recent Bitcoin price gains, investors are increasingly betting on a price decline. Data from CEX.IO shows short sellers paying rates around 11%, peaking at 19%, the highest since early 2023. Concurrently, Bitcoin is undergoing one of its largest accumulation phases. The simultaneous rise in strong buying and short positions suggests potential significant price volatility, with the possibility of a short squeeze or a reverse shock. Bitcoin currently down 1.6% at $75,754.

Analysis: Bitcoin short positions surge, market prepares for significant volatility.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

BIT Research indicates multiple signals are simultaneously strengthening, suggesting that Bitcoin's recovery rally may have begun. From technical convergence to capital restoration, the market is gradually confirming a trend reversal.

BIT Research: Multiple Signals Strengthen Simultaneously, Has the Bitcoin Recovery Rally Already Started?

Bitcoin rose 2% to $7,910 and Ethereum 3% to $2,388 amid easing geopolitical tensions, boosting Asian markets with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi hitting record highs. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw $823.7 million net inflows for the fourth consecutive week. The crypto fear and greed index improved from 29 (fear) to 47 (neutral). Analyst Dominick John attributes gains to ETF inflows, technical breakthroughs, and reduced risk aversion.

Analyst: Both the crypto market and Asian stock markets rise amid easing geopolitical tensions.

K-line chart data shows that TRUST saw a breakout above 0.075 with volume on April 5, only to surge to a 0.095 high on April 15 and quickly fall back toward 0.07, displaying the characteristics of a typical false breakout. Since then, the price has repeatedly tested the 0.065–0.073 range, resulting in an oscillating up-and-down pattern. Combined with the false breakout driven by USD moves, it is key to watch the validity of 0.065 as support and the resistance strength at 0.075–0.077.

Recent phishing scams targeting wallet users have underscored on-chain security risks, testing investors' trust in underlying protocols and asset custody. At the same time, the balance between verifiability and autonomy of AI asset management agents highlights industry demand for trusted infrastructure. Blockchain’s native advantages in access auditing and verifiable execution of smart contracts provide a path for consolidating long-term value for TRUST.

Cobo AI growth head Brad Bao stated that AI Agents managing funds and assets have moved from concept to reality, with the question of whether Agents will handle money no longer an issue. However, risks like funds not arriving as expected have emerged. The industry faces a core challenge balancing Agent autonomy and verifiable certainty, as lack of either undermines trust in handing over financial control to AI Agents.

Brad Bao, Head of AI Growth at Cobo: AI Agents have begun "managing money," with the core challenges shifting to trust and certainty.

Artificial intelligence enables cost-effective scaling but struggles to establish trust. Cryptocurrencies can rebuild trust on a large scale, providing five ways blockchain supports AI agent infrastructure.

a16z: 5 Ways Blockchain Helps AI Agent Infrastructure

India’s cybercrime agency has issued a warning about a rise in scams targeting Trust Wallet users, involving fake verification links to gain access and drain funds. Scammers contact victims via peer-to-peer platforms, then move to private messaging to push fake "crypto asset verification" steps, leading users to fraudulent sites that request wallet connections. Once malicious permissions are granted, attackers can instantly drain wallets with no chance of reversal. Users are urged to disconnect suspicious apps and never share seed phrases.

India Warns of Trust Wallet Scam Using Fake Verification Links

TRUST Protocol AI

Rising Fuel Prices Could Force Excruciating Choices on Economic Policies

A Small Change at the FED Caused Bitcoin to Fall! – Wall Street Giant Morgan Stanley Revised Its FED Interest Rate Forecasts After Yesterday’s...

BoE: Holding fire with two-sided risks – Deutsche Bank

Fed: Warsh-led cuts seen limited – Rabobank

Japan's Katayama: Getting closer to taking decisive step in FX market

Bitcoin price slips on ‘discord’ risk at Fed amid messy regime change. ‘No choice but to stay’

Ouch. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5% and bitcoin may pay the price.

Bank of Japan: High oil prices and a weak yen could keep core inflation at around 3% for two consecutive years

The Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, continuing its wait-and-see approach.

Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut expectations to next year, inflation pressures remain high.

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