BITCI is currently in a favorable cycle of sustained liquidity improvement and simultaneous entry of incremental institutional funds. In the short term, selling pressure has significantly eased, key moving average support is solid, and the current adjustment is bottoming in nature. Entry of institutional and whale funds, combined with compliance dividends, enhances market depth and expectations of sector differentiation, bringing significant positive spillover effects to BITCI. Attention should be paid to potential impacts of geopolitical shocks and traditional market volatility on capital flows. Medium and long-term investors are advised to seize the adjustment phase, focus on key lower support zones (suggested to refer to mainstream interval pullbacks within 5% for phased entry), and benefit from excess returns driven by policies, liquidity, and structural changes in capital.

Market liquidity continues to improve, with a decline in the proportion of chips within the cumulative cost zone of core assets, while prices steadily rise, opening up upward space. Short-term holders are experiencing significant contraction in selling pressure due to current floating losses, providing support for price rebounds during pullbacks. Additionally, prices remain above key moving averages, with technical signals indicating that the current adjustment is more of a bottoming process rather than a trend reversal, offering BITCI the possibility to rise during periods of warming market sentiment.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

Recently, the average size of large Bitcoin inflow transactions has surged by dozens of times, showing that institutional or whale-level funds are accelerating their entry, enhancing market depth. Meanwhile, regional markets are seeing increased demand for crypto compliance, driving asset concentration on compliant CeFi platforms. Market participants remain highly attentive to policy-friendly expectations and arbitrage opportunities arising from tax window adjustments. Such fund inflows may bring style shifts and market stratification, also creating positive spillover effects for BITCI.

CryptoQuant data reveals that Binance's average monthly single Bitcoin inflow has surged nearly 34 times since early 2021, reaching about 29.7 BTC per transaction. This significant increase indicates heightened activity from large holders or whales on the platform, suggesting that institutional or major investors are accelerating their Bitcoin deposits into the exchange.

Data: Binance's average monthly single Bitcoin inflow size surged 34 times, with a significant increase in whale activity.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

The industry is entering an accelerated phase of mergers and acquisitions, with major players visibly expanding through M&A and IPOs, potentially leading to reconstruction of market share. Although macro geopolitical tensions have not triggered sharp sell-offs, they remain potential disruptive factors, requiring attention to sudden events’ short-term impact on market sentiment. In addition, as correlations between mainstream stock indices and crypto assets rise, BITCI may face liquidity rebalancing risk when traditional markets exhibit divergent trends.

The crypto industry is transitioning from extreme volatility to institutionalization: Bitcoin's market value fell 8%, underperforming gold and tech stocks. Capital is increasingly concentrated in compliant CeFi sectors, with intensified structural differentiation in the primary market. A wave of mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs signals accelerated consolidation in 2026, where larger players will absorb smaller ones.

RootData 2025 Web3 Industry Annual Report

On January 7, U.S. stock markets closed mixed with the Dow up 0.99%, S&P 500 up 0.6%, and Nasdaq up 0.65%, all hitting new highs. Cryptocurrency stocks showed varied performance: Coinbase fell 1.71%, Circle rose 0.06%, and Strategy (MSTR) dropped 4.1%. After MSCI announced it would not remove DAT companies from its index, some DAT stocks, including MSTR, surged in after-hours trading, with MSTR rising 7.17%.

U.S. crypto stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with MSTR down 4.1%, but rising 7.17% in after-hours trading due to positive news.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, an expected accommodative monetary environment and the compliance process will continue to support capital in the crypto market. Real-time liquidity indicators are regaining activity, suggesting the current "de-risking" phase may be nearing its end. Rising institutional holdings and the advancement of real asset tokenization will act as positive catalysts for value discovery for quality projects like BITCI. Overall, medium-to-long-term investors can enter in batches during market pullbacks to seize opportunities for trend continuation.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

Bitfinex Alpha report highlights that after a month of low liquidity and reduced volatility, Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization and minor reversal in early 2026, trading within a narrow range of $85,000 to $94,000. The ETF-driven sell-off slowed significantly by the end of last year, suggesting the "de-risking" phase may be over. Strategy has increased Bitcoin holdings for several weeks, with market liquidity expected to improve in early 2026.

Bitfinex: Bitcoin is fluctuating narrowly between $85K and $94K, and liquidity conditions may improve.

Bitcicoin

Crypto braces for volatility as Warsh hearing nears and rate cut odds slide

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year.

Economists predict that the US CPI will increase by 1% month-over-month in March, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Slepne: The European Central Bank will discuss either raising interest rates or keeping them unchanged.

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, the Fed may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

Fed Rate Cut Bets Collapse as Jobs Data Shocks Markets; 10-year Treasury Yield Hits Critical Level

Trump: 178K new jobs and a 55% drop in trade deficit attributed to tariffs

"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": Low Job Growth May Become the New Normal but Is Especially Vulnerable in the Context of War

"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": Low Employment Growth May Become the New Normal but Especially Vulnerable in the Context of War

Next Week's Macro Outlook: The Iran War Will Continue to Dominate Market Sentiment, Fed Meeting Minutes Worth Watching

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