Recently, BIT has benefited from a rebound in market risk appetite and massive capital inflows. The short-term resistance range has significantly risen. Combined with the distribution of holding costs and the incremental funds driven by ETFs, BIT is expected to continue its catch-up trend. Key support should be watched around the $2.3–$2.5 range. From a technical perspective, be wary of high leverage and liquidation risks. It is recommended to manage position sizes, set strict stop-losses, and avoid chasing highs. In the medium to long term, ecosystem expansion and accelerated regulatory compliance will provide BIT with solid fundamental support. Buying in batches on dips is advised, with a focus on the valuation uplift potential brought by industry consolidation.

Market sentiment has notably improved recently, with bullish sentiment gradually restoring. Bitcoin's price is holding critical moving averages, and capital flows have shifted from cautious observation to proactive deployment. Under the dual effects of macro tailwinds and geopolitical fluctuations, risk assets overall first suppressed, then rebounded. As an exchange ecosystem token, BIT has strong correlations with both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The warming sentiment has laid a solid foundation for its short-term performance.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of hundreds of millions of US dollars, indicating a significant increase in institutional capital's willingness to allocate digital assets. Meanwhile, institutions are increasing their focus on sidechain businesses of compliant CeFi platforms, which will further stimulate demand to hold exchange tokens. The holding cost distribution of BIT is concentrated at mid-to-lower ranges since the project's listing. If short-term capital inflows persist, BIT is likely to maintain its catch-up rally.

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $459 million last week (Dec 29 to Jan 2). BlackRock's IBIT led with a $324 million inflow, totaling $62.38 billion historically. Fidelity's FBTC followed with $106 million last week and $12.2 billion total inflow. Grayscale's GBTC had the largest outflow of $53.67 million last week, with a total outflow of $25.24 billion. Bitcoin spot ETFs' total net asset value reached $116.95 billion, representing 6.53% of Bitcoin's market cap, with cumulative net inflows of $57.08 billion.

Data: Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $459 million last week, with BlackRock IBIT leading at a net inflow of $324 million.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

BIT's recent candlestick performance shows high consistency with Bitcoin's trend. If Bitcoin falls below key chip distribution areas from early this year, the downside risk may also transmit to BIT. In addition, market leverage levels are rising, and there is a concentration of long positions in perpetual contracts. Should a sharp correction occur, concentrated liquidations may intensify sell pressure. Short-term traders should pay close attention to support at previous lows and critical moving averages to prevent losses from worsened high entry points.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

With mainstream institutions accelerating their entry into digital assets and exchanges' industry integration picking up pace, BIT, serving as a platform governance and fee discount token, continues to see an enrichment of its long-term application scenarios. Clearer industry regulation and the accelerating trend of asset tokenization provide a solid foundation for BIT's intrinsic value. Thanks to Bybit’s deep presence in derivatives and spot markets, token holders will benefit from ecosystem expansion, making its long-term value proposition still attractive.

The crypto industry is transitioning from extreme volatility to institutionalization: Bitcoin's market value fell 8%, underperforming gold and tech stocks. Capital is increasingly concentrated in compliant CeFi sectors, with intensified structural differentiation in the primary market. A wave of mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs signals accelerated consolidation in 2026, where larger players will absorb smaller ones.

RootData 2025 Web3 Industry Annual Report

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BitDAO Price: BIT Live Price Today | BIT Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-ge

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