Currently, ELON benefits from the improved risk appetite and liquidity in the crypto market. In the short term, it has completed a staged bottoming and effectively returned above $0.09. If it remains stable in the $0.086-$0.092 range, it may challenge the $0.102-$0.107 resistance level. However, caution is required regarding a more hawkish Fed, major crypto asset volatility, and macro uncertainties, as short-term pullback risks still exist. Strategically, it is recommended to closely monitor key support and resistance areas, manage position sizes, and respond flexibly to sudden liquidity contractions.

Driven by a return in Ethereum derivative buying and the easing of Bitcoin-related geopolitical tensions, overall risk appetite in crypto assets has markedly rebounded. Since March, Ethereum purchase momentum has remained positive, and net inflows into spot ETFs have reached recent highs. Bitcoin has held the $73,000 level multiple times on the back of eased Middle East tensions. This round of risk asset recovery has led to improved market liquidity, providing a favorable short-term sentiment environment for ELON.

Market data shows Ethereum buyers are returning, with bulls defending the $2000 support level. Since March 6, Ethereum's aggressive buying volume has remained positive, indicating a recovery in derivatives market demand. The buying pressure dominates at $104 million, marking the first such shift in Ethereum derivatives since the last bear market. Futures open interest nears a historic high, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw a $120 million net inflow, the highest since mid-March.

Analysis: Ethereum's proactive order consumption has remained positive since March, signaling a recovery in the derivatives market.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

From the daily chart perspective, ELON began to bottom out around the $0.07 level in early April, with gradually increasing trading volumes. The price surged for two consecutive days (April 15-16), closing above $0.09 and achieving an intraday gain of more than 10%. A steady hold in the $0.086-$0.092 range could signal further mid-term tests of the $0.102-$0.107 resistance area. Increased stablecoin supply on the network and improving ETH/BTC ratios indicate growing capital allocation willingness toward high-risk assets, supporting ELON's continued technical rebound.

Although short-term sentiment is positive, the in-line US Core PCE data, the Fed's continued hawkish stance, and potential negative gamma effects from Bitcoin derivatives at the $75,000 level all remind investors to watch out for heightened volatility and liquidity contraction risks. In the current range-bound market, any macro surprises or increased volatility in mature markets could intensify ELON’s short-term downside pressure. Close monitoring of risk events is necessary.

The latest US PCE inflation data met expectations, easing market uncertainty and stabilizing Bitcoin around $73,000. Core PCE rose 3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Despite easing US-Iran tensions, potential energy price impacts remain unreflected. Investors remain cautious about Fed rate cuts. Economist Mohamed El-Erian highlights upcoming CPI data as more critical amid oil price volatility. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe maintains an $80,000 Bitcoin target if key support holds.

Analysts maintain an $80K Bitcoin target as PCE inflation data boosts market sentiment.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Dogelon Mars

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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