In the short term, the market is driven by a rebound in liquidity, which has enhanced bottoming momentum. In the short run, opportunities for buying at low points within a trading range can be monitored, but overall risk appetite remains weak, as reflected by trading volume and fee levels. The mid- to long-term trend still tends to be bearish. Be alert for the risk of rallies triggering distribution at higher levels. As a mid-term turning point has yet to be confirmed, it is recommended to control position sizing, operate step by step, set strict stop-losses, seize structural trading opportunities, and avoid blindly chasing highs. Pay close attention to net capital inflows and breakout signals at key resistance levels.

Recently, marginal improvements in market liquidity indicators have generated signs of a price rebound from the bottom area. This type of rebound, driven by temporarily eased funding conditions, is often a short-term sentiment-driven adjustment and is accompanied by a synchronized increase in trading volume. This suggests that short-term participants may be able to seize buying opportunities during bottoming consolidation, but the market lacks sustained upward momentum.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

A comprehensive view of on-chain trading fees and volume data shows that most market participants remain on the sidelines. Overall trading activity is below average, indicating that macro-level risk appetite is struggling to quickly recover and that the market is in a period of digestion. The long-term outlook is expected to remain bearish, so beware of the risks of distribution at higher prices.

As key signals of a turning point remain unclear, it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in trading volume and net capital inflows over several consecutive days. If there is a sustained increase in volume or a breakout above critical resistance levels, a mid-term reversal can be confirmed; otherwise, remain cautious of the risk of retracement after a rebound. It is recommended to set reasonable stop-losses, build positions step by step, or reduce positions during rallies to cope with sentiment fluctuations.

Fud the Pug

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