XETH's short-term trend is driven by market fear, amplifying volatility. Key focus should be on the liquidation hotspots corresponding to Ethereum's $2,952 and $3,252 levels; a breakdown or breakout will directly impact XETH's short-term trajectory. Strategically, it is recommended to closely monitor volume and price action in high-density trading zones to seek arbitrage opportunities. In the medium to long term, deleveraging in the derivatives market and significant inflows into Ethereum-related ETFs have notably improved market structure. Institutional participation enhances XETH's allocation value, and volatility is expected to converge subsequently. Allocation strategies should prefer selective positioning on pullbacks, prioritizing medium to long-term asset allocation associated with growing demand from compliant financial institutions.

At the beginning of the year, the market saw BTC return above $90,000 and Ethereum break past $3,100. However, total market capitalization has not yet reached previous highs, with fear sentiment remaining elevated, prompting cautious investor outlook towards short-term trends. As a derivative asset highly correlated with Ethereum, XETH may see sharp increases followed by rapid pullbacks in the short-term, mirroring broader market volatility, though trading volumes and liquidity remain to be further observed.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

The cryptocurrency market is broadly declining, with BTC falling 1.08% to $91,900 and ETH down 2.05% to $3,187. The RWA sector leads losses with a 2.99% drop, while the SocialFi sector rises against the trend by 0.58%. TON and CHZ increased by 0.48% and 1.93%, respectively, and select projects like Binance Life, MYX, and POL also saw gains despite the overall downturn.

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a widespread decline, with BTC dropping below $92,000, while the SocialFi sector is rising against the trend.

Ethereum has potential liquidation thresholds of over $1.1 billion in long positions at $2,952 and close to $1.0 billion in short positions at $3,252. A break below support could trigger massive long liquidations, while a breakout above resistance would intensify short covering and upward momentum. XETH typically exhibits heightened volume and stronger moves, or rapid pullbacks, during such liquidation events. It is crucial to monitor trading density at these levels to seize opportunities arising from short-term trend shifts.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $2,952, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.154 billion. Conversely, if ETH breaks above $3,252, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $995 million.

Data: If ETH falls below $2,952, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.154 billion.

Since October 2025, the derivatives market has deleveraged nearly $30 billion, effectively reducing the overall market leverage and bringing prices closer to fundamentals. With lighter positions, new capital is becoming more willing to enter. XETH may benefit from improved derivatives liquidity, with volatility expected to gradually converge, fostering a healthier long-short trading environment and laying the groundwork for subsequent trend reversals.

Matrixport's latest analysis indicates that after a significant deleveraging in the derivatives market, the crypto market may establish a more solid foundation for a new rally in 2026. Since October 2025, nearly $30 billion in leverage from BTC and ETH futures contracts has been cleared, resulting in lighter positions and lower leverage. This shift is expected to bring prices closer to fundamental values and open up upside potential as speculative overheating cools down.

Matrixport: After the clearing of derivative leverage, a new round of market trends may begin in 2026 on a more robust foundation.

Recently, ETFs related to BTC and ETH have seen sustained inflows, approximately $459 million and $161 million respectively, ending a two-week streak of outflows. Additionally, research reports suggest that under accelerating monetary easing and fiscal pressure, long-term premiums for digital assets are likely to increase. As a significant derivative instrument within the Ethereum ecosystem, XETH will gain solid medium to long-term support from institutions seeking compliant integration and tokenized financial services within the Ethereum network.

Gate Ventures reports a rebound in the cryptocurrency market with BTC and ETH rising 4.13% and 6.61%, respectively, boosting total crypto market cap by 4.82%. ETF inflows improved, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BTC and ETH ETFs gaining approximately $459 million and $161 million. Despite price gains, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." Mid- and small-cap assets outperformed, led by Memecoins. Ecosystem growth is driven by Ethereum scaling, institutional tokenized finance, and demand for compliant decentralized AI infrastructure. Four funding events raised about $17 million, mainly for data and infrastructure, signaling ongoing long-term development amid cautious short-term sentiment.

Gate Ventures: The cryptocurrency market rebounds, ETF fund inflows signal improvements in market structure.

Binance Research highlights that despite the Fed's easing policies, cautious investor sentiment has kept the crypto market declining. Bitcoin and Ethereum's dominance grows as asset managers increase holdings. January may mark a bearish trend reversal as investors shift from overvalued assets to crypto. In 2026, accelerated Fed easing and rising long-term premiums amid fiscal pressures could benefit Bitcoin, leveraging cheap liquidity and credit erosion. Altcoin ETFs see net inflows, contrasting Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs' outflows. Stablecoins surpass $1 billion market caps, becoming key global financial indicators.

Binance Report: Expectations of Accelerated Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 Are Positive for Bitcoin, January May Be a Turning Point for the Bearish Trend

OKX Wrapped ETH

The IMF calls on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

Stronger, broader hiring could ease Fed job market worries

Fed's Daly: The Federal Reserve should focus on the employment rate rather than employment data.

Market Edges Higher; Strong U.S. Jobs Data Complicates Rate Outlook

KPMG: The Federal Reserve is expected to be forced to raise interest rates in the second half of the year.

Trump warns of more strikes after Iran bridge attack, Bitcoin retreats

Market Analysis: Significant Increase in Non-Farm Payrolls Eases Employment Market Concerns, Fed's Cautious Stance Expected to Continue

US Non-Farm Payrolls Data Exceeds Expectations Much More! Here Are the Details

Analysis: The non-farm payroll data still shows obvious fluctuations, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy remains quite high.

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