After deep deleveraging, SCR broke through the key 0.045 level with increased volume in a highly sensitive market environment. The daily chart structure has turned bullish and established an upward trend foundation. If it holds above 0.0455 in the short term, it is expected to challenge the 0.0476 and 0.05 thresholds. Rising risk appetite for Bitcoin has led to a synchronized rally in altcoins, attracting capital inflows. However, derivative positions still show a high demand for downside protection. Investors should strengthen risk management, seize volatility opportunities during the market rebound, and apply a layered allocation based on medium and long-term value logic.

In recent months, Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped sharply from its highs to current low levels, pushing overall market leverage to a historical low. In this deep deleveraging environment, small capital inflows and outflows have a notably amplified impact on prices in the short term. As a mid- and small-cap token, SCR's price volatility becomes even more susceptible to this market sensitivity. Its recent repeated swings in the 0.042–0.045 range clearly reflect intense localized trading dynamics.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

As geopolitical risks have eased somewhat and the Federal Reserve has displayed a hawkish tilt, global risk assets have generally turned warmer. Bitcoin took the lead by surging near key resistance, briefly breaking through $74,000 and approaching the 100-day moving average, bolstering short-term bullish confidence. Against this backdrop, altcoins with high correlation to Bitcoin also rebounded in tandem. Fueled by bullish sentiment, SCR received a second wave of liquidity support, exhibiting a synchronized upward trend with Bitcoin.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

From the daily chart, on April 16th, SCR opened high and rose higher, with the closing price returning above the 0.046 level. Trading volume surged over 70% above the previous average, and short-term moving averages are gradually aligning in a bullish pattern. Technically, the resistance at 0.045 has been effectively broken, establishing new support and laying the groundwork for a challenge to the previous high of 0.0476 and the psychological barrier at 0.05. Under bullish dominance, as long as it remains above 0.0455 intraday, a continued short-term upward oscillation appears likely.

Despite active short-term bulls, derivatives data reveals that the demand for downside protection is significantly higher than for bullish positions, highlighting investors' caution toward volatility. Meanwhile, long-term institutions and large holders continue to show a willingness to buy Bitcoin and related assets, viewing the current stage as still favorable for accumulation. As SCR continues to make progress in ecosystem development, it is essential to balance medium- and long-term value exploration with short-term market fluctuations, prioritizing risk management and position control.

STS Digital CEO Maxime Seiler reports that Bitcoin traders are increasingly seeking downside protection, with demand for put options significantly exceeding calls, indicating market panic. Bitcoin trades just above $70,000 after a recent nearly 4% drop triggered by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. naval actions near Iran and rising oil prices above $100 per barrel, which heighten inflation concerns ahead of upcoming central bank meetings.

STS Digital: Bitcoin bearish sentiment intensifies, options market shows investors seeking downside protection

Scroll

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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