SOLX currently benefits from increased activity in the Solana ecosystem and an improved market risk structure, with short-term prospects driven by liquidity and risk appetite. However, caution is advised due to limited trading depth and on-chain manipulation risks that may lead to short-term volatility. In the medium to long term, focus on mainstream institutional adoption and capital inflows, closely monitor key large holders' movements and macro supply-side changes. Operation advice: participate cautiously in the short term, focus on liquidity distribution and order book depth, avoid chasing pumps or selling into dips during periods of high volatility, reasonably allocate positions, use multidimensional data for decision validation, and avoid being misled by single-chain analysis; in the medium to long term, base core holdings on ecosystem development and mainstream application penetration, and watch for new incremental opportunities after a breakthrough of key ranges (recommend focusing on 4.80–6.00 USDT).

Recently, the Bitcoin market has transitioned from a deleveraging phase to moderate expansion. Z-score indicators show a warming of market sentiment, but price increases have been mainly driven by spot, with limited growth in leveraged positions, indicating overall lower risk with reduced long liquidation risk. This healthy market structure boosts investors’ willingness to allocate to risk assets and is expected to provide positive sentiment momentum for SOLX in the short term.

On-chain spot trading volume on Solana has surpassed $1.6 trillion, reflecting a sustained increase in network usage and capital flows. High activity provides robust foundational support for the ecosystem where SOLX resides, helping to enhance its long-term value and user engagement, and strengthening token use cases and liquidity.

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced diverse dynamics ranging from macroeconomic discussions to ecosystem developments. Key topics included warnings about on-chain price manipulation, AI-driven prediction market strategies, and geopolitical risks affecting supply. Notably, Venezuela reportedly holds over 600,000 BTC "shadow reserves" worth $60 billion, potentially impacting market supply. Walmart announced Bitcoin payment acceptance, signaling mainstream crypto adoption. Solana's on-chain spot volume hit $1.6 trillion, and Ethereum's stablecoin settlement reached a record $8 trillion in Q4 2025. Perp DEX markets are recovering, while concerns about physical security risks for holders persist.

Venezuela's 60 billion BTC "shadow reserves," Walmart supports Bitcoin payments, what is the overseas crypto community discussing today?

Warnings of on-chain price manipulation and ongoing challenges of low short-term contract liquidity persist in the market. Additionally, short-term market trading is concentrated in just a few contracts, meaning SOLX may face amplified volatility and slippage risks in the short term. Investors should pay attention to order book depth and thickness and be wary of execution risks caused by insufficient liquidity during sharp market sentiment shifts.

PANews analyzed 295,000 historical markets on Polymarket, revealing that 63.16% of short-term markets (under 1 day) had zero transactions in 24 hours. Short-term crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, with sports markets averaging $1.32 million in volume, 30 times higher than crypto's $44,000. A small number of top contracts (505) account for 47% of total volume. Long-term markets (>30 days) have 45 times more liquidity, led by US politics. Geopolitical markets are the fastest-growing segment. Polymarket is polarizing into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro political hedging," with liquidity concentrated in few top narratives.

PANews data: 63% of the short-term market on Polymarket had 0 transactions in the last 24 hours, with 505 top contracts accounting for 47% of the trading volume.

Walmart's announcement to support Bitcoin payments marks a further rise in mainstream institutional acceptance of crypto assets, boosting market confidence and stimulating demand for alternative assets, including SOLX. However, Venezuela's massive Bitcoin 'shadow reserves' may trigger selling pressure at market-critical junctures, suggesting ongoing uncertainty on the macro supply side; monitoring the moves of institutional whales and external factors is needed.

Recent research points out that on-chain transaction association analyses based on time correlation suffer from serious bias, reminding investors to carefully filter data noise and logical flaws when making trading decisions with such tools. Otherwise, there is a risk of mis-signals and amplified risk. For SOLX, multi-dimensional indicator verification should be used to avoid distortions from single chain analysis models.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

Sol X

Crypto braces for volatility as Warsh hearing nears and rate cut odds slide

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year.

Economists predict that the US CPI will increase by 1% month-over-month in March, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Slepne: The European Central Bank will discuss either raising interest rates or keeping them unchanged.

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, the Fed may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

Trump’s statement boosts odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14%

US forces’ entry into Iran by April 30 market jumps to 86% amid clashes

Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86.5% after F-15E recovery

US-Europe alliance strains over Iran conflict as ceasefire odds plummet

US considers seizing strategic islands near Iran, ceasefire odds plummet

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