After GMT bottomed out multiple times at $0.0093-$0.0096 since mid-March, a clear bullish structure has formed from a technical perspective, with expanding trading volume supporting price breakthroughs, confirming a short-term strong trend. Against the macro backdrop of Bitcoin deleveraging and gradually recovering risk appetite, GMT is extremely sensitive to capital inflows, with its high beta characteristic likely to amplify price elasticity. Operationally, it is advisable to use the dense trading zone of $0.0105-$0.0107 as a risk defense. If GMT can stably stand above $0.0120, there is further upside potential. For mid-to-long-term performance, it is necessary to closely monitor ecosystem activity and mainnet progress.

Recently, Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped sharply to half of last October’s highs, highlighting significant market deleveraging, with overall risk appetite turning cautious. Geopolitical risk easing has pushed Bitcoin higher in the short term and contributed to a broader risk asset rebound. At the same time, a hawkish Fed and rising oil prices have both increased market volatility and enhanced the safe-haven and allocation value of quality digital assets. Institutions have frequently increased their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy; risk appetite is gradually recovering. Tech stocks and Bitcoin both reached new highs, but the market remains vigilant about the extent and persistence of potential corrections.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

From mid-March to the present, GMT has bottomed three times in the $0.0093-$0.0096 range, repeatedly absorbing selling pressure without breaking the $0.0093 support, forming an energy-accumulating double or multiple bottom pattern. On April 11th, single-day trading volume surged over 50 million, with price spiking up to $0.01093, reflecting active buying and dominance in the short term. For several consecutive days after, closing prices held above the resistance zone at $0.0112-$0.0117, confirming short-term bullish momentum. Moving averages are arranged in a bullish pattern, and trading volume is rising as price climbs, suggesting the bullish trend may further continue.

According to GMGN data reported by ChainCatcher, the top 5 trending tokens in the past 24 hours showed significant changes: GiE8....ump surged +7,200% to $0.0002 with a $20K market cap and $4.49M trading volume; AOW rose +10.3% to $0.0014; SNIGGA dropped -99.7% despite $16.2M volume; ALONSHOUSE increased +351.8% to $0.0006; and RND soared +17,000% to $0.0005.

Data: GMGN Hot Sector 24h Increase Reaches +7.2K%

After Bitcoin positions and sentiment have deleveraged, even minor capital inflows can trigger price swings, amplifying the short-term effects for high-beta assets like GMT. Stabilizing geopolitics and increasing institutional long-term allocations have enhanced market liquidity and confidence in digital assets, which benefits GMT during brief rebounds in risk appetite. However, overall asset allocations remain focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum, so the medium-to-long-term performance of GMT should be monitored in relation to the project’s ecosystem development and ongoing activity.

Currently, Bitcoin's attempt to break through key moving averages has triggered negative gamma effects in the derivatives market, potentially amplifying short-term volatility. If the break is not sustained, funds may retreat to lower volatility zones. If GMT pulls back, the $0.0105-$0.0107 dense trading area can serve as short-term support; if it holds above the $0.0120 resistance level, there is potential to open up the next upward phase. The long-term value still depends on the progress of GMT's ecosystem development and the implementation of its mainnet application.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where price fluctuations may intensify due to negative gamma effects in the derivatives market. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, previously a major resistance in January. Breaking above $75,000 could accelerate the uptrend, while a decline may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range marks a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through a four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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