KAS has recently achieved key technological breakthroughs under multiple catalysts. In mid-March, the price surged with volume and briefly touched $0.04145. Derivatives positions and on-chain metrics indicate increased long positions and ongoing inflows of capital. As the price retraced to the $0.035–0.036 range, solid support could set the stage for a new upward move; if support fails, monitor $0.0335. In the medium to long term, ecosystem upgrades (such as the vProgs fork and DeFi expansion) will drive a revaluation of network value, making the current adjustment a window for strategic accumulation at lower levels. However, macro uncertainties persist, requiring dynamic tracking of market sentiment and global risk appetite shifts to increase positions opportunistically and strictly control drawdowns.

In mid-March, KAS prices surged with volume for several consecutive days, reaching a seven-week high of $0.04145 on March 18 and successfully breaking out of a years-long descending wedge range. Technical indicators show that the upward momentum is accelerating. In just 48 hours, derivatives open interest soared from about $9.8 million to $13.6 million, reflecting strong anticipation for the upcoming May network fork and ecosystem evolution. Meanwhile, large on-chain withdrawals have reduced exchange sellable supply, further boosting buying interest and intensifying the short-term bullish sentiment.

Kaspa price surged to a seven-week high of $0.041, confirming a breakout from a multi-year falling wedge pattern, signaling potential for over 50% further gains. Bullish technical indicators like Supertrend and Aroon support a strengthening uptrend, with resistance at $0.038 and a possible rise to $0.056. Additionally, $1.8M in Kaspa has been withdrawn from exchanges, indicating increased investor accumulation and reduced sell-side liquidity.

Kaspa price eyes over 50% rebound after confirming falling wedge pattern

Kaspa's price surged 20% amid a surge in derivatives open interest from $9.89M to $13.64M in 48 hours, driven by anticipation of a May 5 hard fork introducing programmable smart contracts ("vProgs"). This upgrade aims to transform Kaspa into a high-performance ecosystem competitor. The price is consolidating above the 200-day EMA near $0.05, with potential targets at $0.062 and $0.074, though a correction remains possible if support at $0.03 fails.

Kaspa Explodes Higher as Hard Fork Frenzy Sparks Breakout Showdown

Shortly after the breakout, the price retraced from its high, encountering resistance multiple times around $0.038 since March 20 and gradually pulling back to the $0.035–0.036 area. At the daily chart level, trading volume has cooled compared to previous highs, signaling pronounced short-term profit-taking. If support around $0.035 holds, it could provide a technical base for the next rally; if lost, beware of a further pullback to test the moving average support zone near $0.0335.

On March 20, according to Coinmarketcap data, the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value showed notable changes. Bittensor (TAO) led gains with a 13.94% increase to $277.32, followed by Kite (KITE), Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET), Aptos (APT), and Shiba Inu (SHIB). On the downside, River (RIVER) dropped 10.80% to $22.90, with MemeCore (M), Kaspa (KAS), Worldcoin (WLD), and XDC Network (XDC) also declining.

Today's price changes of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap: TAO up 13.94%, RIVER down 10.80%

From a long-term value perspective, the Kaspa ecosystem is undergoing several key upgrades: the vProgs fork introducing programmable smart contracts on May 5, Kasplex partnership supporting direct deposits and withdrawals, and Igra Network's DeFi expansion. These initiatives will empower the high-performance network, enhance application diversity, and provide endogenous momentum for network effect growth. Against this backdrop, the current pullback can be seen as a buying opportunity, laying a solid foundation for the medium- and long-term trend.

On the macro front, expectations of a potential ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a strong rebound in global risk assets: Bitcoin returned to around $71,000 and Ethereum approached the $2,200 resistance. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady but released a hawkish signal, causing short-term market sentiment volatility. Although selling pressure in the crypto market persists and the Fear & Greed Index remains low, KAS is expected to benefit from a rebound in overall market sentiment under the dual impact of still ample global liquidity and a marginal recovery in risk appetite. Continued attention should be paid to macro event developments and changes in market risk preferences.

Analyst Axel's latest report indicates that the Bitcoin market's overheating has completely dissipated, with the MVRV Z-Score dropping 74% from its 2025 peak, confirming the valuation bubble is cleared. However, selling pressure remains high, as the aSOPR has stayed below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, signaling ongoing loss-selling. The market lacks clear reversal signals, and selling pressure has not yet eased.

Analyst: The overheating in the crypto market has been completely eliminated, but selling pressure has not yet dried up.

Following the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 and Ethereum dropped to around $2,100. Despite widespread losses, altcoins like Dexe, Quant, River, Kaspa, and JUST outperformed the market with gains of up to 13.05%. Meanwhile, Mantle, Worldcoin, and others saw significant losses. The crypto market sentiment remains fearful, with a fear and greed index score of 23.

While Bitcoin (BTC) was falling, these altcoins outperformed the market! They became the stars of the day! Here’s the list!

Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire have triggered a market rebound, with BTC nearing $72,000 and ETH approaching $2,200 resistance levels. Global risk assets rallied, oil prices dropped over 6% amid peace hopes, and US stock futures rose. Bitcoin showed resilience with a strong rebound near $71,000, while Ethereum paused before $2,200. Market sentiment eased, but analysts remain divided on whether the rally will sustain or face a downturn.

Trading moment: Expectations of a ceasefire between the US and Iran lead to a market rebound, with BTC and ETH approaching resistance levels of 72K and 2200, respectively.

Wrapped Kaspa

SoSo Macro | Trump Delays Iran Strike 10 Days After Market Rout; Iran Responds to US 15-Point Truce Plan

Panic bets are emerging in the market: if the war spirals out of control, the Federal Reserve may urgently raise interest rates within weeks.

Wall Street Morning Brief | March 27, 2026.

Bauer: Concerns about price shocks may change inflation expectations

Perli: The Federal Reserve's reserve management purchase operation adjustments will be implemented soon.

Swiss Financial Giant UBS: “The Fed Could Make Its First Interest Rate Cut in September”

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April is as high as 93.8%.

Cook: Inflation risks rise given the Iran war

US short-term bond yields rise 10 basis points, Fed rate hike expectations resurface.

Market Analysis: The Bank of Japan has more reason to raise interest rates in April

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