AAVE has recently achieved a strong rebound under the dual influence of institutional capital inflow and the warming sentiment in the DeFi sector. Technically, a bullish trend has formed, with short-term support at $105 and resistance to watch at $117.5. Capital flows indicate that 'smart money' is buying the dip. Combined with product innovation and more compliant capital inflows, this strengthens its medium- to long-term value. However, concentrated governance and the loss of service providers expose risks, requiring continuous optimization to unlock valuation. Suggestions: In the short term, be alert to high-level resistance risks; if pullbacks hold above $105, consider timely entries. For the medium and long term, adjust positions dynamically based on the progress of governance reform.

Recent daily charts show that since the low of $89.68 on April 13, AAVE launched a strong rebound, with three consecutive bullish candles pushing the price from around $90 to a close of $115.47 on April 16. Trading volume simultaneously increased, and a bullish moving average formation is gradually developing, indicating buying strength dominance. The short-term resistance to watch is the historical high of $117.54, and support is concentrated near $105. The technicals suggest that if the price steadily holds the short-term support zone and continues to break out with volume, the current upward trend is highly likely to continue.

Recently, expectations for a US-Iran agreement have risen significantly, leading to a rapid improvement in overall sentiment in the crypto market, with the DeFi sector responding first and AAVE outperforming most of its peers in the short term. However, the emotion-driven rally is also accompanied by quick pullbacks; a minor consolidation appeared on April 16, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to macro expectations and sector hype. Overall, sentiment factors amplify short-term volatility but are unlikely to be the main driving force on a sustained basis.

According to SoSoValue data, rising expectations of a US-Iran agreement have boosted market confidence, leading to widespread gains in the crypto market. The DeFi sector led with a 5% increase, including Hyperliquid (7.06%), Lido DAO (9.94%), and Aave (10.75%). Bitcoin rose 4.51% to surpass $74,000, while Ethereum gained 7.56%, breaking above $2,300.

The crypto market is broadly rising, with the DeFi sector leading gains at 5%, and BTC breaking through $74,000.

Ethereum (ETH) price rose 5.4%, with Aave (AAVE) also performing well, increasing by 3.6% from Monday. Both cryptocurrencies were among the top performers in the CoinDesk 20 update.

CoinDesk 20 performance update: Ethereum (ETH) price rises 5.4%

Aave (AAVE) rose 4.3%, with Aptos (APT) also performing well, up 3.8% since Tuesday. Overall, trades remained flat.

CoinDesk 20 performance update: AAVE rises 4.3% as trades flat

Ethereum (ETH) price dropped 1.3% as the CoinDesk 20 index traded lower. Aave (AAVE) also underperformed, declining 1.1% from Wednesday.

CoinDesk 20 performance update: Ethereum (ETH) price drops 1.3% as index trades lower

On-chain data shows that over the past seven days, AAVE balances on exchanges decreased by 0.81%, while the holdings of smart wallets and whale addresses increased, indicating that off-exchange institutions and 'smart money' are accumulating during dips. Some whale addresses even opened high-leverage long positions during the retracement, showing strong bullish conviction. Meanwhile, Fireblocks launched its Earn feature, introducing idle institutional stablecoins to Aave lending, marking the potential entry of more compliant institutional funds into the protocol. Coupled with innovations in RWA and fixed-rate products, the Aave ecosystem has the ongoing ability to attract institutional capital.

In the past 7 days, approximately $2.90 million of AAVE flowed out of exchanges, reducing exchange balances by 0.81% to 4.89 million. Meanwhile, smart money addresses increased their AAVE holdings by 0.67% to 359,880. The top 100 traders saw a net inflow of $2.18 million, with leading profitable wallets maintaining their positions, including Token Millionaire profiting about $30,500 and holding 100%.

Nansen: In the past 7 days, AAVE saw a net outflow of approximately $2.90M from exchanges, with smart money continuing to increase holdings.

On April 15, a whale with address starting 0x687 opened BTC long positions with 40x leverage as BTC dipped below $74,000, increasing the position to $14.82 million at an average price of $73,929 and liquidation price of $63,666. The same address also leveraged long positions in ETH, TAO, AAVE, and four other cryptocurrencies, aiming to profit from price increases. The total holdings amount to $24.5 million with a current unrealized profit of about $27,000.

Major bulls continuously open long positions in BTC and six other major cryptocurrencies, totaling $24 million.

Fireblocks has launched Earn, a new institutional feature that channels idle stablecoin balances into on-chain lending strategies via Aave and Morpho. Available in Early Access, Earn targets idle capital between settlement cycles, offering institutions native on-chain lending access with familiar controls. The rollout follows a surge in stablecoin activity, with $6 trillion transferred in 2025 across 2,400+ clients. Returns are variable and depend on underlying protocols, reflecting growing institutional demand for regulated DeFi yield opportunities.

Fireblocks Debuts Institutional Yield Tool for Stablecoins

The on-chain lending market has evolved from a niche DeFi tool to a core financial infrastructure, with total locked value reaching $64.3 billion by early 2026, dominated by Aave. Despite growth, risks like liquidation cascades, credit defaults, and cross-chain security remain. The market is shifting as real-world assets (RWA) and institutional funds enter, driving innovation in fixed-rate lending and compliance. Key investment opportunities lie in Aave’s ecosystem, RWA lending, and fixed-rate protocols, balanced against smart contract, liquidity, and regulatory risks.

Huobi Growth Academy | In-Depth Research Report on the On-Chain Lending Market: When Off-Chain Credit Meets On-Chain Liquidation

Aave remains the DeFi lending leader with over $60 billion TVL and nearly 60% market share, with protocol revenue and cash flow maintaining steady growth. However, core governance is concentrated in Aave Labs, and the exit of some service providers has exposed weaknesses in decentralized governance, weighing on long-term trust and valuation. If a balance cannot be achieved between governance efficiency and fairness, the protocol’s value release will remain limited. Strengthening democratic decision-making and risk control mechanisms is needed to consolidate its industry-leading status.

Aave remains a dominant DeFi lending protocol with strong fundamentals, including $42.34 billion TVL and $1.655 billion active loans, maintaining nearly 60% market share. However, challenges in governance, risk control, and capital allocation—exemplified by key service providers exiting—have exposed structural issues limiting its valuation. While revenue and cash flow are solid, Aave faces a "big protocol disease," needing mature institutional governance and fiscal discipline to sustain growth and unlock full token value.

The real situation of Aave: the business remains strong, but the "big protocol disease" has become a valuation ceiling.

Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov declared "zero room for friction" after Aave DAO approved funding Aave Labs with $25 million and 75,000 AAVE tokens, directing all Aave product revenue to the DAO treasury. However, key DAO service providers criticized growing centralization of power around Aave Labs, citing lack of transparency and influence over votes, leading some to exit the DAO amid concerns over its democratic governance.

Aave founder declares 'zero room for friction' as DAO organizations accuse his firm of grabbing power

Aave

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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AAVE price today is 116.30, with a live price change of -0.20 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade AAVE on Bybit-ge.

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