DERP benefits from the marginal liquidity brought by the rebound of mainstream assets, but as a small- to medium-cap token, its short-term trend is easily affected by capital rotation. Although the current market sentiment shows signs of recovery and the preference for Meme assets has diminished, AI and DeFi themes with real-world application scenarios are being significantly favored. If DERP can achieve application implementation, it may participate in sector gains. Attention should be paid to the risks of liquidity fragmentation, slippage, and price spread in the derivatives market, as well as pressure from an overall market pullback. It is recommended to monitor DERP's on-chain activity and fundamentals; if it fails to match the broader market's narrative themes, its price range may be limited by existing liquidity platforms. In the short term, resistance is expected around -5% of the historical high, and support levels can refer to the main spot order book transaction areas.

At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin surpassed the $90,000 mark several times, driving up the prices of major coins such as Ethereum and Solana, and showing signs of improved market sentiment. Although the total market capitalization has yet to fully return to previous highs and the fear index remains relatively elevated, improved funding conditions and continued macro tailwinds are providing more opportunities for small- and mid-cap assets. As a token with a relatively small market cap, DERP may benefit in the short term from the marginal liquidity brought by this round of capital rotation, but the subsequent risk of corrections should be heeded.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Perpetual contract DEX trading volumes have been generally flat this week, with limited growth among major platforms; open interest in derivative contracts has increased slightly but remains concentrated on a few leading venues. In addition, prediction markets display extremely low long-term survival rates due to complex models and insufficient liquidity. For DERP, liquidity in the derivatives market has yet to form a closed loop, and its perpetual and options markets may struggle to keep pace with the broader market. Small- and medium-sized investors should pay attention to risks such as price spreads and slippage caused by fragmented liquidity.

Over the weekend, Perp DEX trading volumes were sluggish, with Hyperliquid leading at approximately $3.09B in 24-hour trading volume and an open interest of $7.77B, marking a 10% increase from the previous week. Variational and Paradex saw continuous growth, ranking fourth and fifth respectively. Other notable platforms include Lighter, Aster, EdgeX, and Pacifica, each with varying trading volumes, TVL, and open interest.

Overview of Major Perp DEXs: Weekend Trading Volume Slumps Across Platforms, Hyperliquid Open Interest Increases by 10% Compared to Last Week

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced diverse dynamics ranging from macroeconomic discussions to ecosystem developments. Key topics included warnings about on-chain price manipulation, AI-driven prediction market strategies, and geopolitical risks affecting supply. Notably, Venezuela reportedly holds over 600,000 BTC "shadow reserves" worth $60 billion, potentially impacting market supply. Walmart announced Bitcoin payment acceptance, signaling mainstream crypto adoption. Solana's on-chain spot volume hit $1.6 trillion, and Ethereum's stablecoin settlement reached a record $8 trillion in Q4 2025. Perp DEX markets are recovering, while concerns about physical security risks for holders persist.

Venezuela's 60 billion BTC "shadow reserves," Walmart supports Bitcoin payments, what is the overseas crypto community discussing today?

Recently, capital has gradually moved away from Meme Coins and switched into utility tokens with real-world application scenarios, with AI, DeFi, and Metaverse themes receiving significant premiums. The Meme index has performed relatively weakly, while AI tokens frequently see daily increases of more than 6%. If DERP has practical application scenarios or integrates with popular themes, it will be able to share in the sector's upside; otherwise, pure speculative tokens will face selling pressure from liquidity outflows.

On January 6, with Bitcoin holding above $93,000, the crypto market saw funds shift from Meme coins to tokens with practical applications, notably AI-themed tokens. Functional indices like DeFi and metaverse rose over 4%, while Meme coin indices remained flat or declined. Render Network surged about 20%, and other AI tokens gained over 6%. This trend aligns with optimism in AI and tech stocks, though geopolitical risks and US employment data may impact sentiment. Continued Bitcoin ETF inflows are crucial for further gains.

Analysis: The crypto market's rebound momentum strengthens, with AI concept tokens outperforming Meme coins.

Meme coin FISH reached a market cap of $12 million with a 35.7% 24-hour increase. Bitcoin briefly fell below $91,000 amid doubts about the crypto market rebound. US crypto stocks mostly declined, except Strategy, which rose 4.43%. Post-US employment data, the Fed's January rate cut probability decreased. Falcon launched an off-chain Bitcoin yield vault with an expected annual return of 3-5%. Perp DEX airdrops and Solana's "invisible tax" on users were also highlighted.

Key market information gap on January 8, must see! | Alpha Morning Report.

Although markets have gradually shifted from deleveraging to moderate expansion, indicators such as Z-Score show that bullish sentiment has somewhat recovered, with activity mainly in spot markets, reducing liquidation risks. However, prices are still in the process of recovery and one-sided trends under prevailing fear may present correction concerns. To establish robust mid- to long-term valuations, DERP needs to strengthen its fundamentals and on-chain activity, otherwise, it will be difficult to withstand capital outflows triggered by market sentiment swings.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Derp

Powell: No reason to believe policy will tighten significantly

Powell will signal and take action if a rate hike is needed.

Powell: The prospect of rising core inflation is real.

Powell: The current interest rate is at the high end of the neutral range, slightly tight.

Powell: Changing the easing bias is a form of forward guidance.

Powell: The number of people who see the possibility of both rate hikes and rate cuts as equally likely has increased.

Tony Welch: The Federal Reserve's threshold for raising interest rates remains high, and the economy does not yet show a need for rate cuts.

Brian Jacobsen: Opposition to the Fed will be louder after Waller takes office

Powell: Continued additional actions threaten the Federal Reserve's ability to fulfill its duties

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh will serve as FOMC Chairman

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