Driven by the recovery of global risk appetite and the key breakout of Bitcoin, SAFE has recently seen a significant surge in trading volume, with short-term bullish momentum continuing. Currently, the range of $0.1414-$0.1509 constitutes a valid bull-bear boundary: if SAFE sustains a breakout above $0.1509 with increased volume, further incremental buying can be expected, targeting the $0.1580 region with considerable upside potential. However, if it falls below $0.1414 with accompanying volume, be cautious of a retest of the $0.1360 support and guard against sudden shocks from geopolitical events. Strategy: For short-term trades, consider accumulating long positions near the lower end of the channel, closely monitor the price-volume relationship, and, in the event of a decisive breakdown, take profits promptly to control drawdown risk.

The recent temporary ceasefire in the Middle East and progress in US crypto regulatory frameworks have led to an overall improvement in risk appetite. Against this backdrop, SAFE has seen continuous upward movement since the close on April 8, posting consecutive small bullish candles with longer upper wicks and a significant increase in trading volume compared to previous periods, reflecting enhanced bullish confidence. In the short term, market sentiment has shifted from caution to optimism, providing a solid base for a continued rebound in SAFE.

On April 8, 2026, just under 90 minutes before Trump's set "deadline," the US and Iran reached a dramatic two-week ceasefire agreement, pausing nearly 40 days of Middle East conflict. For the crypto market, this short-term risk appetite recovery, combined with regulatory progress like the CLARITY Act, creates a rare rebound opportunity.

Crypto Market Macro Report: US-Iran Ceasefire, a Moment for Risk Asset Revaluation

As Bitcoin surged above $74,000 and approached the critical $75,000 technical level, market volatility expectations increased notably. This level serves both as a gamma negative release point and a key moving average resistance zone; a breakout here can accelerate the dispersion of bullish momentum. SAFE's price also saw two large-volume surges on April 10 and 13, creating a continuous upward trend, clearly demonstrating the linkage effect between major coins and altcoins.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

The US-imposed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to higher oil prices and a decline in risk appetite, causing short-term pressure in financial markets. SAFE experienced a minor correction from April 14 to 15, with intraday highs and lows showing declines and trading volume shrinking, indicating profit-taking. Under the mix of multiple news factors, the short-term trend has shifted from initial weakness to resilience, and continued attention should be paid to the impact of risk events on market safe-haven sentiment.

Due to Trump's order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged, US stock futures fell, and the dollar strengthened. This escalation followed failed US-Iran talks in Pakistan, disappointing investors. Elias Haddad from Brown Brothers Harriman noted this will likely reignite risk aversion this week. Investors are also focused on the upcoming Q1 earnings season, seeking corporate leaders' views on rising risks.

Earnings season intertwined with geopolitical crises, market risk aversion reignites.

From a technical perspective, SAFE has recently formed a bullish channel extending upward from $0.1414, and set a new high at $0.1509 on April 16. If SAFE breaks and holds above $0.1509, second-wave buying could be attracted; conversely, if it pulls back below $0.1414, short-term bears may further test support near $0.1360. Combined with changes in trading volume and candlestick patterns, the current stage favors seeking long opportunities near the lower channel, while also being alert to decisive breakdown signals for timely profit-taking.

Safe

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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SAFE price today is 0.16, with a live price change of 8.38 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade SAFE on Bybit-ge.

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