FX tokens are showing signs of a short-term rebound amid marginal improvement in liquidity, but overall market depth and trading volume remain weak. Trading concentration in hot contracts limits sustained upward momentum. The macro-cycle bottom has yet to be fully confirmed—declining volatility and rising fee rates need ongoing data validation. Investors are advised to cautiously adopt a staggered entry strategy, closely monitor trade distribution and large account dynamics, guard against the risk of sharp pullbacks from sudden liquidity drops, and watch the key support at 1.20 and resistance at 1.35 for short-term positioning. Risk hedging measures are recommended; patience is needed to await more definitive trend signals.

Recently, market liquidity has recovered somewhat, providing conditions for FX prices to bottom out and launch a short-term rebound from previous lows. Observing the interplay between trading volume and market sentiment, there is increased willingness for capital inflows, which has helped prices stabilize around the moving averages. While this rebound is a short-term sentiment boost, the overall trading fees and volumes are still insufficient to support a continuous upward move, so investors should be wary of intensified selling pressure during the rebound.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Despite some localized improvement in liquidity, the short-term market still faces issues with inadequate depth. A few popular contracts have absorbed nearly half of the overall trading volume, while most contracts saw nearly zero trades in 24 hours, indicating a concentration of capital allocation. If FX experiences a similar pattern, even heightened short-term volatility may not result in a sustainable breakout. Ongoing attention to trading volume distribution and large holders’ positions is needed to guard against sudden liquidity breakdowns that could trigger sharp price reversals.

From a medium- to long-term macro perspective, the market bottom signal has yet to be confirmed, with only preliminary signs of improvement. Volatility is beginning to decline and trading fees are picking up slightly, but the data still requires more validation and it is too early to declare a trend reversal. Investors are advised to enter positions in batches, employ proper risk hedging, and focus on subsequent on-chain metrics and block trades for more reliable entry windows.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Ali for fx protocol by Virtuals

Fed Pumps $8.26B Into Markets Overnight, Is Something Bigger Unfolding?

Federal Reserve's Logan should not imply easing policy guidance.

The Federal Reserve's Kashkari and Harker stated that the conflict has changed the interest rate outlook, and maintaining an accommodative stance is no longer appropriate.

Global news you need to know before the US stock market opens on Friday.

Fed's Hammack: Uncertainty around economy, policy path has risen

Two Federal Reserve officials said they dissented over this week’s policy statement because it was no longer appropriate to signal the Fed’s next move was still likely to be an interest-rate cut.

Fed's Kashkari: Large enough price shock could require series of rate hikes

BoE's Pill: Should act more promptly in response to new inflation pressure

Kashkari: Previously thought inflation might decrease, but this year it is necessary to cut interest rates again.

Hamac: Inflation pressure is widespread, energy drives prices higher

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