The short-term momentum for POLS to stop declining and rebound is strengthening, with the core support zone located at $0.236-0.265. However, the sustainability of trading volume needs to be monitored. In the medium and long term, structural liquidity deficiencies and low capital efficiency remain an issue. Unless perpetual contracts or innovative market-making mechanisms are introduced, upside for the token is limited. Preliminary resolution of compliance controversies helps restore confidence. Short-term momentum trading is advised, but heavy allocations should wait until there is a significant improvement in the platform’s liquidity structure and risk control transparency.

Recently, the overall digital asset market has shown initial signs of bottoming out, which may drive a short-term rebound for POLS. From a candlestick perspective, the price has been oscillating at a key support level while trading volume has seen a modest uptick, indicating ongoing absorption of selling pressure. Market participants currently maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, with short-term bullish sentiment being boosted, though sustainability of trading volume still warrants attention.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Prediction markets generally face issues of insufficient liquidity and low capital efficiency. In the short term, contract trading depth is mainly concentrated in a few popular assets, while longer-term contracts exhibit more stable capital supply. This stratified pattern amplifies ecological uncertainty for POLS: unless the platform can enhance capital utilization through innovative design or introduce a perpetual contract model, the medium- and long-term token value is unlikely to see sustained appreciation.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

Order book-based market-making models have high requirements for liquidity management. The risks of one-sided positions and information asymmetry are significant, meaning that even with subsidies, it is difficult for most markets to attract professional market makers. If the POLS ecosystem can learn from perpetual contract frameworks or introduce dynamic market-making algorithms, it will help reduce inventory risk management costs and improve depth; otherwise, current models are unlikely to support long-term liquidity expansion.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Subsequent clarifications to insider trading allegations indicated a diverse funding source and timing mismatches, refuting speculation of malicious manipulation. In the short term, this will alleviate the risk of sell-off due to a loss of trust. However, in the medium and long term, the platform still needs to improve transparency and risk control standards to solidify community confidence and facilitate token circulation among a broader investor base.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

Polkastarter

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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POLS price today is 0.05, with a live price change of 3.22 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade POLS on Bybit-ge.

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