The current sentiment in the crypto market is marginally recovering; bearish pressure is weakening, but bullish momentum remains to be confirmed. Most capital is adopting a wait-and-see attitude. RTR’s short-term rebound alongside the broader market is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range (reference interval ±8%), with no clear upward shift in the price center. Given the current sluggish liquidity and the shift of leading capital towards macro-political assets, RTR’s liquidity remains under pressure and volatility may intensify in the short term. Recommendation: High-risk seekers may focus on short-term tactical plays with strict risk control; medium and long-term allocation should closely follow project fundamentals, watch for low-level replenishment and valuation repair opportunities, and in principle, deploy in batches and control overall position size.

Recent on-chain data and market feedback indicate signs of improving sentiment for crypto assets, with bearish willingness weakening and bullish confidence beginning to recover; however, neither trading volume nor price movement have produced a strong consensus of trend reversal, as most capital remains on the sidelines. For RTR, this implies an intensifying short-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a potential to rebound with the broader market. Yet, without sustained inflow of incremental funds, the price is likely to settle into a pattern of range-bound consolidation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

The market is presently characterized by low liquidity and high concentration in the short term. A sharp increase in the share of niche contracts has widened bid-ask spreads, and insufficient trading depth increases slippage risk for large orders. Meanwhile, macro-political hedging demand continues to rise, directing more long-term funds into political markets, thereby intensifying competition for crypto asset allocation. In this environment, RTR is unlikely to secure stable incremental funding in the short term, and volatility may further increase. However, if project fundamentals continue to improve, RTR could benefit from the allocation interest accumulated through market diversification and realize valuation repair opportunities over the longer term.

Restore The Republic

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in April reaches 98.4%.

Who is Kevin Warsh, Trump’s Federal Reserve nominee?

Musallem: Oil price shocks may push core inflation close to 3%

The Federal Reserve's Musalem: The oil shock may keep core inflation around 3%, and interest rates will remain unchanged for a while.

US economic activity continued to increase at a slight-to-modest pace across most regions as the war with Iran generated a new wave of uncertainty and higher energy costs, the Federal Reserve said.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: The war against Iran initiated by the U.S. is seen as a major source of uncertainty, with energy costs soaring across all regions.

US Sources Issue Hot Statement: Iran-US Ceasefire Likely to Be Extended for Another Two Weeks

Fed's Goolsbee: Rate setters face "dual dangers" from the Iran war and tariffs

ECB: Volatile oil clouds rate path – ING

Trump says Powell will be fired if he does not leave office promptly; the probability of Walsh officially taking office before May 15 is 43%.

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