US contract tokens are currently oscillating within the 0.00410–0.00470 range, with declining trading volume reflecting strong wait-and-see sentiment from both bulls and bears. Institutional increases in Bitcoin allocation and stablecoin expansion bring short-term liquidity positives, but a strong US dollar and geopolitical risks lead to liquidity redistribution, amplifying false breakout risks. Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the 0.00410–0.00460 range. If there is a confirmed breakout above 0.00470, moderate additional positions can be considered; otherwise, maintain a cautious stance and wait for further clarity in macro liquidity conditions.

Since reaching a high of 0.00626 in late March, US contract tokens have been consistently pulling back, closing at 0.004306 on April 25. The price is currently supported at the 0.00410 level, experiencing multiple downward tests without a significant breakdown, while the 0.00460–0.00470 area forms a short-term resistance band. Average daily trading volumes have declined significantly from earlier highs, indicating diminished enthusiasm from both buying and selling sides. Technically, the token is in a consolidation phase, awaiting a new directional breakout.

Recently, major listed companies have increased their Bitcoin allocations, with net buys exceeding $2.5 billion in a single week, driving an overall rebound in market risk appetite. At the same time, the relative premium of Bitcoin on US exchanges has remained positive for several days, indicating sustained strengthening in domestic buying sentiment. Such inflows and improved sentiment can spill over into the entire crypto asset sector, providing US contract tokens with short-term liquidity improvement and bullish sentiment support.

According to SoSoValue data, global publicly listed companies (excluding mining firms) saw a strong rebound in Bitcoin purchases last week, with net buys reaching $2.542 billion, a 154.2% increase from the previous week. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) led with $2.54 billion spent on 34,164 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC. Four other companies also increased their BTC holdings. Overall, these companies now hold 1,081,576 BTC, valued at approximately $81.65 billion, representing 5.4% of Bitcoin's circulating market.

Data: Global publicly listed companies' BTC buying power strongly rebounds, with weekly net purchases exceeding $2.5 billion, hitting a recent high.

According to Coinglass data on April 21, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has remained positive for 12 consecutive days, currently at 0.04%, indicating a continued recovery in US market buying sentiment after previously being negative for 15 days. The index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to the global average, reflecting US market capital flow, institutional investment interest, and market sentiment.

Buying sentiment in the US market continues to improve, with the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index remaining positive for 12 consecutive days.

Market focus has shifted from isolated event risks to how the US dollar prices in these events. Current USD volatility is mainly influenced by policy credibility and liquidity trajectories, rather than simple interest differentials or safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, although the US-Iran ceasefire received an extension, negotiations remain at an impasse, restricted shipping lanes continue, and oil prices have been pushed up to nearly $96, intensifying inflation fears and delaying expectations of a Fed rate cut. A strong dollar and liquidity redistribution may amplify false breakouts in the short term, pressuring trend continuation for US contract tokens.

The market is shifting focus from risk events to how the US dollar prices these events, entering a phase of exchange rate-driven risk redistribution. The dollar's core drivers now hinge on policy credibility and liquidity paths rather than just interest rate differentials or safe-haven demand. With geopolitical tensions and inflation influencing policy, the dollar remains volatile without a clear trend, impacting Bitcoin's price action by amplifying false breakouts and liquidity shifts rather than driving a sustained trend.

Bitunix analyst: The US dollar's pricing power swings between policy credibility and the outcome of the war, with the market entering a risk redistribution phase dominated by exchange rates.

President Donald Trump has indefinitely extended a US ceasefire with Iran. However, several key issues remain unresolved that both sides must address to achieve a lasting peace agreement.

President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a US ceasefire with Iran. There are some key issues the two sides will need to resolve if they’re to agree to a lasting peace deal. Here’s what to know.

Polymarket's probability of the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before April 30 has dropped to 18%, a 17% decrease in 24 hours. The event contract's total transaction volume has exceeded $35 million. Rising tensions include Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and displaying missiles, while the US threatens continued military action after the ceasefire expires. The market is based on official US and Iranian government information.

Polymarket's probability of "US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before April 30" drops to 18%, down 17% in 24 hours.

Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, along with rising oil prices, have increased inflation concerns, leading to reduced expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

US-Iran conflict, oil surge dampen Fed rate cut expectations

On April 24, the crypto market weakened with BTC hovering around $77,800, slowing its rise from $65,000. ETH fell about 0.8%, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stemmed from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1%, exceeding expectations and signaling possible BOJ rate hikes, strengthening the yen and risking global asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupted oil transport, pushing WTI crude over $96/barrel, raising inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran conflict trigger market risk aversion.

Stablecoin market capitalization has reached a new high of $318.6 billion, reflecting further improvement in overall market infrastructure and deeper institutional compliance participation. On the other hand, Bitcoin short-term holders’ cost basis discount is narrowing, easing short-term stop-loss pressure, but prices have not yet returned to cost basis, indicating that risk appetite has not fully recovered. This suggests that over the medium to long term, the deepening of liquidity and regulatory frameworks will be key drivers for market repricing.

The stablecoin market reached a record $318.6 billion in April 2026, a 34% increase from 2025, amid unprecedented global regulatory actions including the GENIUS Act in the US, Hong Kong issuing its first stablecoin licenses, and MiCA reshaping Europe. Major players like Tether and Circle show contrasting regulatory standings. The market faces growing institutional involvement, regulatory fragmentation, and evolving risks as safer stablecoins gain adoption but deepen ties with traditional finance, highlighting a pivotal year ahead for global stablecoin regulation and market structure.

Overview of the Stablecoin Market Landscape and Global Regulatory Developments

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

Talus

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

FOMC Meeting: US Fed Expected To Hold Rates Till 2027 Despite Kevin Warsh Taking Charge

Senate Committee Sets April 29 Vote To Advance Pro-Crypto Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination

The global oil shock has the Fed cornered just days before its next meeting — what that means for Bitcoin

The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

One Week Preview | The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; MegaETH token TGE will take place on April 30.

Netanyahu orders IDF to intensify attacks on Hezbollah, ceasefire in doubt

Trump halts US-Iran peace talks, April 30 deal market plummets

Trump evacuated from White House dinner amid US-Iran tensions

Biden highlights US blockade success against Iran, Strait of Hormuz traffic impacted

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