XTUSD has recently rebounded in the short term, driven by improved liquidity and increased risk appetite, with prices moving in sync with the mainstream market. Key focus is on the price range of $0.98–$1.02, with the bulls still in control for now. However, mid-term market cap recovery remains insufficient, and the inflow of new funds is lacking; a bottom confirmation will require observing more volume and trend signals, so chasing the rally should be avoided. On the macro level, Federal Reserve policies and employment data will directly impact liquidity expectations. Caution is advised regarding volatility risks triggered by a reversal in interest rate expectations. It is recommended to reasonably control positions during the current rebound, closely monitor policy and capital flows, and adjust long-short allocations flexibly as appropriate.

Recently, liquidity in the crypto market has recovered somewhat, with bullish sentiment active. As Bitcoin broke through the $90,000 mark, major altcoins also saw simultaneous gains of over 20%, boosting overall market risk appetite. Meanwhile, trading activity during Asian sessions increased, alongside year-end tax factors and expectations of positive regulatory developments for cryptocurrencies, accelerating short-term buying interest and presenting XTUSD with an opportunity to rally in tandem with the broader market.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Though the short-term rebound is significant, market cap indicators and ‘alt season’ performance show that the market as a whole is still in the price recovery phase, with total market cap not yet back to previous highs and fear sentiment still dominating. Historical trading volumes and fee levels indicate that bulls have not gained a complete advantage, and a market turnaround will need clearer signals from increased volume and capital inflow. In this context, the mid-term trend for XTUSD still depends on subsequent confirmation by more definite trend signals. Investors should remain patient and avoid blindly chasing upward moves.

On the US macroeconomic front, new employment in the private sector was slightly below expectations, while improvements in the employment rate have led the market to expect the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts, putting liquidity under uncertainty. This could dampen risk appetite for crypto assets in the short term and intensify market volatility. For XTUSD, if macro liquidity tightens or interest rate expectations reverse, the upward trend may be hindered. Close attention is needed to future Fed moves and employment data for their impact on market capital flows.

U.S. stocks stalled after a record rally, with the S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq 100 down 0.2%, and Dow Jones up 0.3%. Market experts say more data is needed to break current highs. December private sector hiring rose modestly by 41,000, below expectations, as investors await Friday's nonfarm payroll report.

The record-breaking rally in U.S. stocks stalls as Wall Street awaits economic data releases.

According to ChainCatcher and Jin10 reports, the U.S. unemployment rate has decreased, leading traders to increase their bets on the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts.

U.S. unemployment rate falls, traders bet on Fed pausing rate cuts.

XT Stablecoin XTUSD

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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