The current price of BTCBAM is facing a critical range battle: the $86,000-$89,000 area below acts as strong support, and a breakdown could amplify downside risks and trigger long liquidations; the $95,000-$98,000 area above serves as major resistance, and a breakout may drive short covering, fueling a short-term rally. Decreasing position concentration and easing short-term selling pressure indicate the potential continuation of bullish momentum; rising Asian demand and bullish institutional options positioning support a medium-term bullish outlook. However, short-term liquidity divergence combined with high leveraged liquidation risks suggests adopting a strategy of buying dips in the support range in batches, strictly controlling leverage, and remaining alert to strong volatility triggered by cluster liquidations at key price points.

Recently, the concentration of major Bitcoin holdings has decreased as prices have risen steadily, a signal that typically indicates further upside potential. During this period, short-term investors have incurred unrealized losses as current prices fall below their average entry cost, limiting their willingness to sell and further reducing downward pressure. If prices subsequently stabilize and recover above the average entry cost, it could trigger a new round of profit-taking sell pressure.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

In terms of liquidation thresholds, a drop below the $86,000-$89,000 zone could trigger over $1 billion in long liquidations, amplifying short-term downside momentum. Conversely, a breakout above $95,000-$98,000 could lead to short liquidations, fueling a rapid rally. Thus, these two key price zones near the current level represent critical support and resistance, having a decisive impact on short-term price volatility.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

Demand for crypto assets continues to strengthen across Asian markets, supported by speculation over trading for geopolitical and tax optimization reasons, and rumors that a particular sovereign nation is accumulating a 'shadow Bitcoin reserve,' which is boosting the appeal of risk assets. At the same time, increased bullish option positions and more straddle strategies in the options market reflect institutional investors' prevailing expectations for upward volatility.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Forecast market data shows that liquidity in short-term contracts is severely depressed, with only a handful of top contracts dominating. This weak short-term speculative activity could widen bid-ask spreads during high volatility, suppressing trading efficiency and indirectly affecting the pricing and premium rates of underlying assets.

PANews analyzed 295,000 historical markets on Polymarket, revealing that 63.16% of short-term markets (under 1 day) had zero transactions in 24 hours. Short-term crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, with sports markets averaging $1.32 million in volume, 30 times higher than crypto's $44,000. A small number of top contracts (505) account for 47% of total volume. Long-term markets (>30 days) have 45 times more liquidity, led by US politics. Geopolitical markets are the fastest-growing segment. Polymarket is polarizing into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro political hedging," with liquidity concentrated in few top narratives.

PANews data: 63% of the short-term market on Polymarket had 0 transactions in the last 24 hours, with 505 top contracts accounting for 47% of the trading volume.

BitcoinBam

Here’s why the crypto market is falling today

Lagarde speech: Interest rates best tool we can use

The Fed’s PCE Data Used to Measure Inflation Has Been Released! Here’s Bitcoin’s (BTC) Initial Reaction!

Lagarde speech: Debated at length a hike

Lagarde discussed various options, including the possibility of an interest rate hike.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to its highest level in nearly three years

After the release of U.S. economic data, the probability expectation of an interest rate hike slightly increased.

US Q1 GDP price index preliminary reading at 3.6%, expected 3.8%

US Q1 PCE Price Index annualized quarterly rate preliminary value 4.5%, exceeding expectations

US Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year Rises to 3.2% in March

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