FLOW is constrained by global inflationary pressures and regulatory policy uncertainty, resulting in an increase in market risk premium. In the short term, Bitcoin short positions are elevated, intensifying the long-short game, which in turn significantly amplifies FLOW's volatility and makes it susceptible to sudden squeeze events. Technically, $0.038 is a key support level; if it holds, FLOW may challenge the previous high at $0.044. If it fails, a pullback risk should be watched. Investors are advised to remain cautious, monitor macroeconomic and regulatory developments, strictly control position sizing, and flexibly adjust entry and exit strategies.

Recently, the macro environment has displayed a dual impact of inflationary pressure and policy uncertainty. On one hand, global commodity supply and demand tensions (such as tight physical oil supply) have increased investor interest in inflation-hedging assets. On the other, key regulatory bills (such as those concerning the definition of crypto assets and tax collection regarding them) still face uncertainties in their legislative processes, raising market risk premiums. For tokens centered around smart contracts and decentralized ecosystems, short-term sentiment may be pressured by regulatory delays or potential tightening, but over the medium and long term, they may still benefit from continuous institutional and retail deployment of blockchain applications in an inflationary environment.

The Weekly Editor's Picks (0418-0424) highlights key insights from fast-moving news, covering macroeconomic trends like the looming physical oil supply shortage despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, investment and crypto market analyses including user geography and token strategies, and policy updates such as the uncertain passage of the CLARITY Act. It also addresses DeFi challenges, security incidents, and notable industry developments, offering a curated filter to retain valuable perspectives amid information overload.

Weekly Editor's Picks (0418-0424)

The Bitcoin market is simultaneously seeing high short interest rates and continued capital accumulation, suggesting the possibility of intense volatility in the near term. A sharp rebound could trigger short covering, thereby driving a coordinated rally across the crypto asset sector. Conversely, if market sentiment turns pessimistic, profit-taking by shorts or intensified sell-offs may occur. Given the high positive correlation between FLOW and Bitcoin, the token’s price fluctuations may be significantly magnified in the short term, and traders should be wary of sudden long-short squeezes and opposite shocks.

Since early April, FLOW's price has steadily climbed from the $0.029 range, breaking through the psychological $0.04 mark on April 25 with increased volume, indicating buying strength dominated by bulls. In the following days, the price retreated slightly to the $0.038–$0.039 area with trading volumes dropping significantly, reflecting limited selling pressure and that the market is consolidating at higher levels. The immediate key support is around $0.038, which, if maintained, could provide a foundation for another move upward; resistance above is at the $0.044 peak set on April 28. Overall, the bullish trend still has room to continue, but risks of pullback from sudden macro or sentiment shifts should be watched.

flow state

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 95%, and in July it is 87.9%.

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U.S. PCE Inflation Rises to 3-Year High, Bitcoin Slides

US Treasury yields spike to highest levels in a year, adding a new problem for Bitcoin liquidity.

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