HEI has achieved a technical rebound in the short term, catalyzed by improved macroeconomic conditions and the recovery of US tech stocks. It is currently fluctuating within the 0.080–0.090 range. If Bitcoin breaks through the key level of $75,000, HEI is expected to move towards the 0.092~0.095 range. Otherwise, attention should be paid to support in the 0.082 and 0.080 zones. On the funding side, small holders are reducing positions in the short term, while major players remain active but the overall capital direction is unclear. The recommended strategy is to closely track whether trading volume can continue to expand; consider adding positions upon effective volume-price resonance to seize breakout opportunities, while guarding against pullback risks caused by macro or major coins weakening.

As global geopolitical risks have eased and US tech stocks have rebounded strongly, the risk appetite for overall assets has recovered. HEI rebounded from a low of 0.0739 on March 28 to reach 0.087 by April 16, representing a cumulative increase of over 17%. Against the backdrop of still abundant liquidity and renewed institutional confidence in crypto assets, HEI has recently escaped from the previous bottom range and is showing signs of technical recovery. However, continued attention must be paid to how subsequent macro data changes may impact liquidity.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

The market has seen a strong V-shaped rebound with the S&P 500 up nearly 10% since March 27 and Nasdaq's longest winning streak since 2021. Optimists like Tom Lee and Ed Yardeni believe the bottom is confirmed, citing easing geopolitical risks and strong earnings growth, with AI driving productivity gains. However, skeptics like Michael Hartnett warn the market hasn't reached true capitulation, highlighting cautious investor positioning and high oil prices as risks. The debate hinges on whether this rally is a sustainable bull market or a technical rebound amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Short-term rebound or bull market return, what do traders think?

Market focus has shifted from "war escalation" to "effective risk pricing." Improved US-Iran negotiations ease extreme supply shock fears, but US sanctions keep risks "controllably suppressed." Energy prices show mixed signals: WTI's premium over Brent declines, yet tight supply and OPEC cuts maintain upward pressure. Businesses delay investments amid uncertainty, causing lagged economic effects. Markets face asymmetric pricing amid macro risk easing but unresolved structural pressures, with liquidity-driven volatility persisting, including in crypto assets like BTC.

Bitunix Analyst: Energy supply risks have shifted to a controllable state but are not yet resolved. Policy and corporate actions are beginning to show delayed responses, and the market has entered a phase of asymmetric pricing.

Bitcoin has recently been testing the critical resistance zone around $75,000, which coincides with the volatility release threshold in the derivatives market and is suppressed by its 100-day moving average. If breached, overall market buying enthusiasm is likely to increase further, driving resonance across major and most altcoins. On the other hand, a retracement could dampen short-term sentiment. HEI is currently running in the 0.080–0.090 range. If Bitcoin breaks upwards, HEI is expected to look for resistance at 0.092~0.095. If Bitcoin faces setbacks, the 0.082 and 0.080 levels will be key for stabilization.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where price fluctuations may intensify due to negative gamma effects in the derivatives market. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, previously a major resistance in January. Breaking above $75,000 could accelerate the uptrend, while a decline may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range marks a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through a four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Santiment data shows that small Ethereum holders have significantly reduced their positions in the past two days, reflecting a short-term profit-taking mentality. Meanwhile, HEI's daily average contract trading volume surged to over 22 million and 2.3 million on April 2 and April 16, respectively, indicating that major or speculative forces are actively participating. BitMEX's founder noted that the market currently lacks a clear direction, and some funds remain cautious in a wait-and-see mode. In this context, HEI needs to confirm a breakout or post-retracement consolidation with sustained expansion in trading volume, in order to achieve meaningful range expansion beyond the current zone.

Santiment reported that amid recent market gains, small retail investors are selling significant amounts of Ethereum, with wallets holding 0.01 ETH or less reducing by 1,791 ETH (worth $4.16 million) in two days. The public perceives the 17% rise since March 29 as a bull trap, which ironically may strengthen the likelihood of the ongoing bullish momentum continuing.

Santiment: The general market believes the recent rise is a bull trap, but the bullish momentum may continue.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes states the crypto market is currently in a "no-trade zone," with his fund Maelstrom making almost no trades in Q1 due to lack of clear direction. He warns AI will disrupt white-collar jobs, causing deflationary financial collapse, while tensions in the Hormuz Strait amid US-Iran conflict are key market variables. Hayes outlines three scenarios involving war outcomes, AI impact, and shifts in global financial and energy systems.

Arthur Hayes: The crypto market is currently in a "no-trade zone," with the AI unemployment wave and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz as key variables.

Heima

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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HEI price today is 0.09, with a live price change of 5.32 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade HEI on Bybit-ge.

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