In the current market environment, HUNDRED is showing key support and resistance levels, with the 102,000 point serving as a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment. According to on-chain MVRV indicator analysis, if the price holds this level firmly, it could trigger a technical rebound and boost market confidence, making it suitable to gradually accumulate positions within this range. If this level is breached, caution is required as intensified selling pressure may occur; it is better to observe for bottoming signals in the 98,000 area before re-entering positions. Trading strategies should remain flexible, with reasonable stop losses, and attention should be paid to the rebound potential concentrated around the holding cost.

According to the on-chain MVRV extreme deviation model, the 102,000 level has repeatedly acted as a dividing line during bull-bear transitions. If this position holds, it will form a solid short-term support below, likely attracting dip buyers and pushing prices into a technical rebound. However, if it fails, heavy selling pressure will return to the market, potentially pulling the price back to around 98,000—a region that closely coincides with the average holding cost of short-term holders and marks a new equilibrium zone for the next round of bull-bear struggles. 

From a market psychology perspective, stabilization at the 102,000 threshold can boost market confidence and is expected to increase trading volume. Conversely, a breakdown could further intensify selling sentiment and accelerate downward momentum.

On June 22, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the $102,000 level has been a critical support or resistance point since March 2, according to the MVRV extreme deviation pricing range. If this support holds, a rebound is expected unless further negative events occur. However, if it fails, the price may drop to $98,000, which is also the average cost line for short-term holders and considered a key "bull-bear dividing line."

Analyst: $102,000 is a short-term key support level; if broken, the price may drop to $98,000, the "bull-bear dividing line."

In the short term, if the price consolidates sideways around 102,000, it can be seen as a signal of bullish accumulation. Traders may consider staging entries near the support level, with stop-losses set slightly below 98,000. If the price breaks down directly, positions should be managed cautiously and short selling should be avoided; it is advisable to wait for bottom confirmation in the 98,000 to 100,000 range before entering new positions. 

From a mid-to-long term value perspective, the 102,000 and 98,000 levels form an important trading range, acting both as a sentiment watershed and a dense area of holding cost distribution. Only after the market has rebuilt a bottom and returned above the upper bound of the range can the validity of the next trend direction be confirmed.

HUNDRED

Global interest rates, Robinhood, Galaxy earnings: Crypto Week Ahead

Fed: Leadership uncertainty shapes Dollar outlook – DBS

Allianz Chief Economic Advisor: Middle East Shock Drives Global Central Banks into a "Higher for Longer" Interest Rate Environment

Analyst: Interest rate decision will be the main market driver, focus on the impact of Middle East conflict.

US Treasury yields rise, market focuses on this week's central bank meetings.

Barclays: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week, but may still cut rates within the year.

Bank of England to keep rates on hold while it gauges impact of Iran war

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, setting up a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

HTX DeepThink: After Interest Rate Cut Expectations Are Postponed to September, the Structural Differentiation of the Crypto Market Intensifies

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