IMO currently benefits in the short term from a phase of market liquidity recovery, presenting a rebound opportunity. Investors are advised to enter at low positions within the $0.13-$0.17 range, in accordance with changes in trading volume, and to set strict stop-loss orders to control the risk of pullback. In the medium to long term, if on-chain activity and capital efficiency cannot be continuously improved, a weak macro cycle will make it difficult for a rebound to persist—high positions should be decisively reduced. Additionally, close attention must be paid to liquidity support and market-making innovation on major platforms to optimize trading depth; otherwise, IMO faces a structural bottleneck of increased slippage and wider spreads. Investment decisions should be based on authoritative sources, filtering out partial information interference, and dynamically adjusting positions in accordance with the trend.

Recently, several experienced investors have emphasized the importance of trend investing, noting that adhering to market trends during macro bull cycles increases the probability of gains. For medium and small-cap tokens like IMO, when the overall crypto market confirms an upward breakout, it is appropriate to increase positions in line with the trend to benefit from periodic upswings. Conversely, during market downturns or high-level fluctuations, profits should be taken decisively or position sizes reduced to control drawdown risk.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Based on changes in market liquidity, the current phase may bring a temporary recovery, potentially resulting in a short-term rebound for IMO. However, if trading volume and on-chain fee levels cannot sustain an uptrend, and the macro cycle remains weak in the medium to long term, the risk of a reversal at the rebound's peak increases significantly. Investors can enter at short-term low points but should set stop-losses with careful consideration of trading volume and holding costs to guard against a secondary drop.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analysis of market-making models and liquidity distribution in prediction markets shows that assets in traditional order book systems are prone to unilateral price moves and capital efficiency bottlenecks. As a medium and small-cap token, IMO faces greater slippage and wider spreads if it lacks stable market-maker support or liquidity incentives. Moving forward, it's important to pay attention to how major platforms and market-making teams advance capital efficiency and innovate contract-based products to improve IMO's trading depth and price discovery.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

In an environment of highly fragmented information, investors are easily disrupted by incomplete or distorted on-chain analysis conclusions. If the IMO market is affected by one-sided interpretations of large transfers or insider trading, verification through multidimensional on-chain data and time-series analysis is necessary to avoid irrational selling or chasing due to noise. Investment decisions should primarily reference recognized authoritative channels and be comprehensively evaluated in light of actual project developments.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

Former Chain News editor Liu Feng and WuBlockchain founder Colin Wu discuss the challenges faced by traditional and crypto media, emphasizing the difficulty of obtaining accurate and timely information in the chaotic crypto space. They explore media influence on market prices, the tension between speed and accuracy, the role of subjective insights, and the evolving trust dynamics amid social media monetization. They also share practical advice on verifying information and recommend reliable crypto information sources.

Talking with former Chain News editor Liu Feng about the current state of crypto media, how to find real and effective information? (Includes sources of crypto information).

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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IMO price today is 0.48, with a live price change of 2.09 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade IMO on Bybit-ge.

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