Driven by the recovery of the Asian market and active trading of crypto assets, OUSD's short-term capital demand and activity have increased significantly, providing stage-based allocation value. It is expected that with liquidity release, OUSD's annualized yield will remain in the 5.3~6.1% range. However, caution is needed regarding the weak macro cycle, which may exert pressure on the DeFi ecosystem and OUSD's long-term yield. Strategically, a moderate stage-based holding of OUSD is recommended to enhance portfolio flexibility, while closely monitoring DeFi protocol returns and market liquidity indicators and dynamically managing positions to balance steady interest income against potential drawdown risks.

Recently, the Asian market has performed strongly. The rising prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have prompted investors to realize profits, with more capital flowing into yield-generating stablecoins in the short term to lock in returns. At the same time, increased bullish sentiment and rising implied volatility in the options market have intensified hedging demand, supporting the short-term demand and capital activity for interest-bearing stablecoins like OUSD.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Liquidity recovery is expected to drive a short-term rebound in the crypto market, with investors potentially using OUSD to obtain stable interest income. However, judging by trading volume and fee performance, the macro cycle remains weak. Insufficient long-term market vitality may weigh down the yields of DeFi protocols behind OUSD, so caution is required regarding its impact on long-term holdings.

It is recommended to moderately allocate OUSD during periods of heightened short-term market sentiment, in order to obtain stable interest income and use it as a hedging tool during volatility. Meanwhile, closely monitor macro liquidity and DeFi protocol yield dynamics, adjusting positions accordingly to balance stable returns against potential cyclical downside risks.

Origin Dollar

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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Origin Dollar Price: OUSD Live Price Today | OUSD Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-ge

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