The current recovery in macro risk appetite, combined with signs of bottoming in ID tokens, is fostering positive short-term trading sentiment. However, caution is advised over the risk of a pullback induced by geopolitical and policy disturbances. Bitcoin derivatives leverage has been reduced to low levels, making the market susceptible to amplified volatility driven by small-scale capital inflows. The volatility of ID tokens is increasing in tandem, so it is recommended to control overall positions and set a strict stop-loss at $0.0303. If this support is consistently held in the short term and a substantial breakthrough above $0.033 occurs, a renewed upward trend is expected. In the medium to long term, the integration of the ID ecosystem with AI asset management and post-quantum encryption applications offers clear prospects, supported by both technology and capital. It is advised to accumulate on dips, balancing risk control with long-term growth potential.

Recently, the situation in the Middle East has eased somewhat, and the US stock market, along with commodity trends, has seen a synchronized rally, leading to a rebound in risk appetite. Driven by these factors, the entire crypto market has performed positively, with the prices of major assets generally rebounding. Bitcoin once broke above $72,000, hitting a four-week high, which revitalized demand for leverage in the derivatives market. The resultant improvement in short-term market sentiment is boosting trading enthusiasm for both mainstream and secondary assets. Against this backdrop, ID tokens have also received certain buying support, with short-term sentiment leaning bullish; nevertheless, caution is warranted regarding pullback pressures should policy or geopolitical risks re-emerge.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

The open interest of Bitcoin futures has fallen significantly to a six-month low, resulting in overall market leverage being at a historically low level. This suggests that even small-scale capital inflows can now drive price volatility. Moreover, the negative gamma effect in the derivatives market is being unleashed at key levels, thus any sharp advances or volatile corrections could further magnify overall price swings. Under such liquidity conditions, the volatility of ID tokens also has the potential to increase. Investors should pay close attention to changes in market leverage and key volatility thresholds to manage positions and stop-losses.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

On April 11, driven by the rebound in risk assets, ID tokens swiftly reached a high of $0.0406 but then pulled back to around $0.032, forming a long upper shadow that indicated heavy selling pressure at the highs. In the subsequent days, the token found effective support near $0.0303, consolidating and gradually recovering the resistance around $0.0325. As of the close on April 16, the price rebounded to $0.0328 with markedly increased trading volume. If the $0.0303 support is held going forward and a breakout above $0.033 is achieved, the prospects for a renewed medium-term uptrend improve; otherwise, caution is advised against the risk of another test of support.

After several months of bear market adjustment, AI-driven on-chain asset management tools and key post-quantum cryptography projects within the industry are advancing rapidly, with ongoing technology iteration and strengthened capital investment. If the ID token can serve as an enabler for these emerging application scenarios within its ecosystem, it is expected to gain long-term value support. At present, the project team is collaborating with multiple AI and blockchain research institutions to promote the implementation of decentralized intelligence strategies and actively participates in building quantum-safe infrastructure, all of which are positive for its long-term outlook.

The report provides a comprehensive overview of the crypto market after five and a half months of bear conditions, covering key developments in DeFAI tools driven by AI agents for on-chain asset management, and an analysis of ongoing critical projects in the post-quantum cryptography (PQC) sector. It highlights major players, investment trends, technological advancements, and the integration of AI and blockchain in DeFi, as well as the progress of PQC initiatives aimed at enhancing security against future quantum threats.

Research Morning Report | Five and a Half Months of Bear Market: A Health Check Report on the Crypto Market / DeFAI Tool Summary: How to Use AI Agents to Drive On-Chain Asset Management / Post-Quantum Cryptography Track Analysis: An Overview of Key Ongoing Projects

SPACE ID

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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SPACE ID Price: ID Live Price Today | ID Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-ge

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