TRUTH is currently consolidating between the $0.0093–$0.0100 range, with both bottom support and upper resistance remaining solid. The improvement in macro market sentiment, combined with an overall deleveraging environment, provides a catalyst for TRUTH's short-term capital inflows and price elasticity. It is necessary to monitor the matching degree between trading volume and price performance; a successful breakout above $0.0100 is expected to open up a new stage of upside potential. Strategically, it is recommended to closely monitor support levels for position protection, actively follow up once resistance is broken, and beware of short-term sentiment fluctuations caused by disputes in the prediction market.

With easing geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s tone turning hawkish, risk assets experienced a rebound. Bitcoin recently broke through a four-week high, approaching the $75,000 mark, while institutions continue to add to their ETF holdings, clearly warming up market risk appetite. Against this backdrop, capital is returning to the crypto market, providing short-term bullish support for TRUTH from a sentiment perspective.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

On the daily chart, TRUTH has repeatedly found buying support around the $0.0093–$0.0094 area, failing to break down effectively, indicating this zone serves as a short-term bottom. The $0.0098–$0.0100 range above is a dense resistance area with concentrated trading activity; if price can steadily reclaim and hold above this level, a new upward move could unfold. Otherwise, a narrow-range oscillation pattern may persist. Recently, trading volume shows some increase, but the momentum is limited, so beware of the risks of volume-price divergence.

Recently, several Web3 prediction markets have sparked controversy regarding arbitration rules and betting logic. Large funds have influenced market expectations by exploiting asymmetric information or rule arbitrage. While these events do not directly alter TRUTH’s fundamentals, they can be transmitted through market sentiment, exacerbating short-term volatility and increasing divergence in trader sentiment, potentially amplifying rapid long and short swings in the near term.

An anonymous trader on Polymarket profited over $400,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro before a secret U.S. military operation. Polymarket is hailed as a "truth machine" for its collective betting odds, which often outperform polls, especially in major elections. However, analysis reveals its accuracy varies widely across markets, with poor performance in sports and many other areas. The platform's odds can be influenced by wealthy traders with private information, raising concerns as media outlets widely disseminate these odds as facts, potentially affecting real-world events and public perception.

Polymarket is not an all-powerful "truth machine."

Prediction markets in the Web3 space face controversy over whether participants trade based on facts or platform rules. Two recent disputes highlight this: Polymarket ruled a US military rescue operation in Iran as an invasion, sparking debate over rule interpretation versus common understanding; and the issuance of Polymarket's stablecoin was classified as a token launch, causing disagreement on whether stablecoins fit the "token issuance" definition. These cases emphasize the importance of understanding market rules over relying solely on real-world events.

Prediction markets embroiled in major controversy again: Are you trading facts or rules?

Prediction markets in the Web3 space face controversy over whether trades are based on facts or rules. Two recent disputes highlight this: Polymarket ruled a US special forces rescue mission in Iran as a military invasion, sparking debate over rule interpretation versus common understanding. Additionally, Polymarket's issuance of a stablecoin was classified as token issuance, causing further debate on rule scope. The core issue is whether participants bet on reality or the market's rules, emphasizing the importance of understanding rules to avoid losses.

Prediction markets embroiled in major controversy again: Are they trading facts or rules?

Since October 2025, overall leverage levels in the crypto futures market have fallen sharply and are now at historical lows. A low-leverage environment means the market is highly sensitive to incremental capital inflows, as even small inflows can generate significant price movements. With TRUTH’s relatively limited liquidity, once bullish capital enters, it may take the lead in showing an amplified rebound effect. Close attention should be paid to open interest and capital flows.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Swarm Network

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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Live chart for Swarm Network to USD conversion. Check out TRUTH to USD prices in real time. Convert, buy, sell, and trade Swarm Network on Bybit-ge.

Swarm Network Price: TRUTH Live Price Today | TRUTH Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-ge

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TRUTH price today is 0.01, with a live price change of 2.38 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade TRUTH on Bybit-ge.

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