YAY is currently in a bottom consolidation range. In the short term, it benefits from a marginal recovery in liquidity and possesses some rebound momentum. It is advised to watch the effectiveness of support in the 0.XX~0.XX range. However, overall macro liquidity and market activity remain weak, with no clear trend capital inflows, and medium- to long-term pressures persist. In terms of strategy, investors should adhere to trend investing principles—buy on dips, cut losses immediately if key support fails, avoid heavy positions against the trend, and prioritize deployment at nodes where liquidity improves. Meanwhile, given the high volatility typical of prediction markets, investors lacking experience and risk management capability should avoid heavy positions and participate selectively to guard against systemic drawdown risks.

Recently, market sentiment has shifted from pessimistic to cautiously optimistic. YAY has consolidated multiple times at key support areas, and although strong bullish momentum has yet to be clearly established, frequent and larger lower shadows indicate buyers are actively stepping in at the bottom. Signs of recovering liquidity in the sector have also begun to appear, suggesting that capital inflows may be providing short-term price support. Overall, the market looks poised for a possible bottom rebound.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Despite the increased likelihood of a short-term rebound, macroscopic capital flow and transaction fee data show that overall market activity remains low, with limited stamina for sustaining inflows. Long-cycle liquidity indicators have yet to show a clear turnaround, indicating the market is still at the tail end of a downtrend cycle and struggles to counteract potential macro headwinds. Investors should remain patient and cautiously deal with the possibility of prolonged consolidation in medium- to long-term trends.

At this stage, the core approach is to follow the major trend rather than pursue extreme buy/sell points. Strategic deployment at the start of a bull market and decisive stop-losses during bear markets can smooth the return curve. If YAY can ride trend-driven capital inflows as the overall market recovers, it may yield relatively stable profits; conversely, if the price falls below key support, one should promptly reduce exposure to avoid systemic risk.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

In niche sectors such as decentralized prediction markets, market makers face high volatility and unilateral risks, and only institutions with robust risk management and quantitative models can profit over the long term. This pattern is reflected in YAY’s liquidity depth—new entrants who lack ample experience and sufficient capital may find it hard to earn steady returns during volatile periods. As major platforms intensify liquidity incentives, professional market makers will gain further influence, prompting new players to exercise extra caution.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

YAY Network

The Powell era comes to an end: What has he left behind?

Reminder: Please pay special attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

US growth likely picked up in first quarter, but consumer spending probably cooled

Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026 and cut rates in 2027.

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The Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut may be delayed until the fourth quarter.

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, with internal divisions reaching the highest level since 1992.

Wall Street Breakfast | April 30, 2026.

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