BTCINU currently benefits from the relief of short-term holding pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite, presenting a phased opportunity for capital to flow into small and mid-cap sectors. A surge in volatility bets in the options market indicates an increased probability of significant short-term fluctuations, so caution is advised regarding violent swings caused by short squeezes or long squeezes in derivatives. In the medium to long term, the resumption of net inflows into mainstream ETFs and expectations of macro-level easing provide allocation opportunities for high-elasticity assets. However, given the accumulated leverage on the bitcoin main chain, if key support levels are breached (pay attention to the BTCINU core support at $0.058~0.062), there could be a liquidity stampede. Strategy suggestion: Follow the trend in the short term, strictly control stop-loss levels; for medium to long-term allocation, it is advisable to build positions steadily in line with the broader market risk release rhythm.

A notable recent phenomenon in the mainstream crypto market is that short-term holders are reducing selling due to current prices being below their average cost, resulting in a significant alleviation of overall selling pressure. Against this backdrop, high-risk assets like BTCINU are likely to benefit from the recovery in market sentiment, with short-term capital tending to flow into such small and mid-cap assets, thereby generating some upward momentum.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

Large funds are reportedly deploying straddle option strategies, indicating participants' expectations of major future price fluctuations. This kind of hedging operation reflects traders' bets on volatility despite directional uncertainty. In the short term, if there is a sharp rally or steep decline, it could trigger a short/long squeeze in derivatives, further amplifying BTCINU's price volatility and creating rapid short-term trading opportunities.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

Over the past two weeks, mainstream crypto-related ETFs have reversed their outflow trends and returned to net inflows, with institutional participation increasing. Meanwhile, skepticism regarding the traditional four-year cycle—combined with easing expectations and asset securitization trends—provides support for potential long-term bulls. In this macro environment, if BTCINU can capitalize on this momentum, it may gain continued allocation value when broader risk appetite warms up.

Gate Ventures reports a rebound in the cryptocurrency market with BTC and ETH rising 4.13% and 6.61%, respectively, boosting total crypto market cap by 4.82%. ETF inflows improved, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BTC and ETH ETFs gaining approximately $459 million and $161 million. Despite price gains, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." Mid- and small-cap assets outperformed, led by Memecoins. Ecosystem growth is driven by Ethereum scaling, institutional tokenized finance, and demand for compliant decentralized AI infrastructure. Four funding events raised about $17 million, mainly for data and infrastructure, signaling ongoing long-term development amid cautious short-term sentiment.

Gate Ventures: The cryptocurrency market rebounds, ETF fund inflows signal improvements in market structure.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

Bitcoin long positions have remained active recently, with perpetual contract funding rates persistently positive, reflecting that the market is broadly using leverage to buy the dip. However, if the price falls below key support, billions of dollars in long positions could be forcibly liquidated, intensifying selling pressure. Conversely, if the price breaks above recent highs, massive short positions could face clustered liquidations. Such dual extreme liquidation risks mean that when BTCINU tracks mainstream moves, special attention should be paid to the amplifying effects of sudden liquidity shocks on valuation.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $95,649, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $1.87 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $95,649, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

Bitcoin Inu

CITIC Securities: The Market Guidance Role of the Federal Reserve Chairman's Speech Declines

The Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut may be delayed until the fourth quarter.

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, with internal divisions reaching the highest level since 1992.

Wall Street Breakfast | April 30, 2026.

Bank of England set to hold rates as Iran war clouds outlook

Gold held losses after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady and said the war in Iran was clouding the economic outlook.

ECB to hold rates steady but keep hikes firmly on the table

Brazil’s central bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter point for a second straight meeting, even as inflation accelerates and signs of economic resilience emerge.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Prices Drop As Fed Holds Rates and Trump Rejects Iran Deal

Bitcoin Dips Under $76K as Fed Holds Rates in Rare 8-4 Split

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