BRETT is currently in a wide-ranging volatility phase dominated by bullish-bearish divergence, with prices fluctuating in the 0.0067–0.0072 range. Although trading is active, there is clear selling pressure above. Despite short-term profit-taking signals from on-chain flows and futures long funding trends, incremental support from US spot ETFs and stablecoin circulation provides effective price defense. Medium- to long-term risk appetite is improving, backed by liquidity and institutional allocation. However, macro factors such as yen appreciation and geopolitical tensions are pushing up global risk premiums, potentially creating negative feedback for market sentiment. In the short term, attention is advised on the support validity of the 0.0066–0.0070 range, while medium-term positioning should await external risk moderation and confirmation of a breakout above 0.0072 with supporting volume.

Looking at the historical daily chart, BRETT experienced significant volatility in mid-April: on April 19 it hit a stage low of 0.006606 before quickly rebounding, having surged as high as 0.008028 on April 16. It then moved into consolidation within the 0.0067–0.0072 range. On April 26, it closed at 0.007013, rising over 5.5% from the recent low. Although trading volume fell after peaking at 271 million on April 16, it has remained at medium-high levels, indicating strong trading enthusiasm on both sides.

Nine memecoins on the Base network posted gains over the week ending April 18, 2026, with RUSSELL leading at a 14.1% increase, trading at $0.002720, and BRETT up 13.5% at $0.007529. The rally spanned eight different tokens, indicating broad strength in the Base meme category. Base's Coinbase-backed infrastructure facilitates retail participation, contributing to renewed interest and trading activity in these typically micro-cap, volatile memecoins.

Base Memecoins Rally This Week With RUSSELL Up 14.1% and BRETT Up 13.5%

On-chain data show the spot net flow turning negative, indicating growing short-term selling pressure; risk appetite in the futures market is recovering, but lower long funding rates suggest increased willingness for bulls to take profits. Meanwhile, demand for downside protection in options has weakened, and implied volatility has stabilized. Correspondingly, large inflows into US spot ETFs are providing market support, and short-term sentiment displays a clear bull-bear tug-of-war.

Glassnode's latest report highlights intensified market tug-of-war with spot CVD turning negative, indicating increased selling pressure and emerging bearish sentiment. Futures show rising risk appetite but declining long funding rates, reflecting growing bearishness. Options suggest reduced downside protection demand and neutralizing volatility. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs see rising MVRV and inflows, boosting investor interest and supporting cautious optimism amid stable long-term holder confidence.

Glassnode: Market bullish and bearish struggles intensify, spot CVD turns negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF inflows provide support.

Despite renewed US-Iran tensions affecting oil, stocks, and crypto markets, Bitcoin stabilized around $75,200 on Monday. Analysts note that the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $996.4 million last week, its strongest since mid-January, supporting the market through institutional demand. However, the market remains in a "fragile balance," with stablecoin balances rising, indicating liquidity is circulating internally rather than exiting the crypto market.

Analyst: Bitcoin maintains a fragile balance around $75,200, ETF inflows hedge against geopolitical risk shocks.

Since last October, the growth rate of stablecoin market cap has slowed, with this month's new circulation reaching about $3 billion, sending a signal of robust market liquidity. At the same time, institutions have continued to increase their holdings of Bitcoin, driving net inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars per day into spot ETFs, significantly improving the overall funding situation. Abundant liquidity conditions provide a basis for the continued rise of high-risk memecoin structures and also strengthen mid- to long-term holder confidence.

Bitcoin demand structure is gradually recovering, supported by continuous purchases from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and a rising Coinbase Premium. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a daily net inflow of $664 million, the highest since mid-January. Combined corporate buying, ETF inflows, U.S. spot demand, and stablecoin capital returning are strengthening liquidity. Analysts suggest a new trading range is forming, with increasing chances of price moving toward the upper range, though gains won't be linear.

Bitcoin demand structure is recovering, with ETF single-day net inflows hitting the highest since mid-January.

Since October last year, Bitcoin has been in a prolonged adjustment phase due to weak liquidity and limited new capital inflows, with Tether's market cap hovering around $183 billion. Recently, Tether's circulation increased by about $3 billion, signaling a recovery in stablecoin market cap and improved market liquidity. Although still in early stages, these positive liquidity signals may precede price gains and could support Bitcoin prices if sustained in the coming weeks.

BIT: Signs of market liquidity recovery are emerging, but it is still in the early stages.

Japan's March Corporate Services Price Index rose more than expected, boosting expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy. A stronger yen may crowd out cross-market capital allocation; meanwhile, tensions in Iran and rising oil prices are increasing inflation concerns, limiting global central banks’ loosening moves. At the same time, the average cost for short-term holders is still above the current price, meaning there is both room for profit-taking and motivation to add positions, suggesting increased volatility is likely in the near term.

BTC's upward momentum slowed near $77,800 after rising from $65,000, with ETH also declining about 0.8%. Market pressure stems from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1% YoY, suggesting possible BOJ rate hikes and a stronger yen, which may trigger risk asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupts oil transport, pushing WTI crude over 40% higher to $96/barrel, sustaining inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran war trigger market risk aversion sentiment.

On April 24, the crypto market weakened with BTC hovering around $77,800, slowing its rise from $65,000. ETH fell about 0.8%, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stemmed from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1%, exceeding expectations and signaling possible BOJ rate hikes, strengthening the yen and risking global asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupted oil transport, pushing WTI crude over $96/barrel, raising inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran conflict trigger market risk aversion.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

Brett

Allianz Chief Economic Advisor: Middle East Shock Drives Global Central Banks into a "Higher for Longer" Interest Rate Environment

Analyst: Interest rate decision will be the main market driver, focus on the impact of Middle East conflict.

US Treasury yields rise, market focuses on this week's central bank meetings.

Barclays: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week, but may still cut rates within the year.

Bank of England to keep rates on hold while it gauges impact of Iran war

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, setting up a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

HTX DeepThink: After Interest Rate Cut Expectations Are Postponed to September, the Structural Differentiation of the Crypto Market Intensifies

FOMC Meeting: US Fed Expected To Hold Rates Till 2027 Despite Kevin Warsh Taking Charge

Senate Committee Sets April 29 Vote To Advance Pro-Crypto Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination

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