BTCST's current price fluctuations are mainly driven by the liquidation risks in Bitcoin’s key zones ($86,000–$89,000 and $94,000–$98,000). Elevated short-term holding costs are effectively suppressing selling pressure and enhancing market resilience. Chip distribution indicates significant accumulation at key support levels; if these hold, BTCST will have short-term rebound potential in line with the broader market. Coupled with a revival in Asian markets and rising institutional expectations, it is recommended to dynamically adjust positions around these key price levels, closely monitor volatility and liquidity shocks from long/short liquidations, and seize short-term volatility trading opportunities.

Recent data indicates that if Bitcoin falls below the $86,000–$89,000 range, it will trigger over $1 billion in long liquidations, while a breakout above the $94,000–$98,000 range may result in over $1 billion in short liquidations. This concentrated liquidation effect will intensify market volatility in the short term, causing BTCST to fluctuate in sync with the broader market. Investors should keep a close eye on the dynamics around these critical levels, as large-scale forced liquidations could trigger chain liquidity adjustments and sentiment swings.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

Data shows that current short-term holders have holding costs above the current price, placing them in an unrealized loss position. This reduces their willingness to sell, thus suppressing downside pressure. Therefore, as long as the price does not rebound above their average cost, bulls can withstand pullbacks and maintain relative stability. For BTCST, if it continues to move in line with Bitcoin, this suppressed selling effect will provide stable short-term price support. However, once Bitcoin nears the key cost line and investors break even, a new wave of profit-taking could emerge.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

From the perspective of chip concentration, Bitcoin's chip distribution near key support levels is showing signs of dispersal, with concentration decreasing as prices rise. This suggests significant accumulation activity in this area and supports subsequent rebounds. If this range holds effectively, downside risks remain limited and the probability of a rebound increases substantially. As a derivative asset highly correlated with Bitcoin, BTCST will also find support within this technical framework and shows potential to follow any rebound.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

The Asian market is seeing a rebound toward year-end, driven by tax-loss selling and geopolitical factors. Speculation regarding sovereign nations holding Bitcoin and heightened expectations for crypto regulation are jointly building a risk asset buying atmosphere. Additionally, the heightened activity of call and straddle options in the market reflects a bet on increased volatility. These external factors not only strengthen Bitcoin but are also expected to provide BTCST with added liquidity support from a sentiment perspective.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

BTC Standard Hashrate Token

Mitsubishi UFJ: If the Federal Reserve emphasizes inflation risks, the US dollar may rise.

Gold: Rising oil clouds Fed easing hopes – OCBC

The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's assessment of rising inflation and its policy path.

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

Australia’s inflation remained above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band as higher fuel costs from Middle East supply disruptions compounded already-elevated price pressures to keep policymakers on a tightening path.

Uncertainty around the economic outlook and a leadership transition at the US central bank loom large over this week’s meeting of Federal Reserve officials, who are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Economists: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, waiting for changes in employment and inflation.

Mexico’s central bank will consider one more interest rate cut at its May meeting that may bring an end to the easing cycle it started two years ago, Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said.

The Fed is set to hold rates in what’s likely Powell’s last meeting as chair - then it’ll be Kevin Warsh’s turn in what has become a political hotseat under Donald Trump

UAE Quits OPEC After 59 Years, BTC Slides Below $76K Amid Hormuz Supply Shock

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