POUCH currently benefits from a phase of revived sentiment in the digital asset market, offering short-term rebound opportunities driven by capital inflows. The price fluctuation range is expected to reach 8%-15%. However, due to the high volatility and liquidity differentiation caused by event-driven order book models in prediction markets, its long-term value depends on the sustained activity of market makers and an increasing share in high-frequency tracks. It is recommended to pay attention to core product line optimization and adjustments to incentive mechanisms to strengthen ecosystem sustainability and mainstream market share; otherwise, mid-to-long-term growth expectations will be limited, requiring ongoing vigilance for liquidity risks and short-term profit-taking pressure.

According to the latest views of on-chain quantitative analysis institutions, the overall digital asset market is tending towards a bottom, with signs of improvement emerging. Market sentiment is shifting from caution to wait-and-see. Against this backdrop, POUCH, as a key token in the prediction market sector, may attract short-term capital inflows based on expectations of market recovery, creating certain price rebound opportunities. However, given the current data sample is insufficient to confirm a trend, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of short-term profit-taking caused by excessive optimism.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

In the order book model, prediction markets face jumpy price volatility arising from information asymmetry driven by events, requiring market makers to continuously manage inventory risk. Despite liquidity subsidies provided by core platforms, the industry's high barriers and professional requirements make it difficult for new entrants to profit. POUCH's long-term value depends on the sustained participation of active market makers within its ecosystem. If the overall sector’s sustainability rate does not improve, the ecological prosperity and token demand may struggle to maintain robust growth.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Industry statistics show that short-term prediction markets have significantly lower liquidity than long-term contracts, with few high-heat contracts accounting for most trading volume. Additionally, the division between sports events and macro-political markets within the sector is becoming increasingly pronounced. If the POUCH ecosystem fails to capture a sufficient share in mainstream high-frequency tracks or long-term political hedging markets, it will face challenges of liquidity shortages and insufficient trading depth. The project team should optimize token incentives and product strategies to attract traffic to core sectors.

CoinPouch

Global news you need to know before the US stock market opens on Wednesday.

Fed: Neutral stance into April FOMC – TD Securities

Bitcoin (BTC) and Markets Focus on the Critical FED Interest Rate Decision! What Time Will It Be Announced? Here Are the Expectations and Everything...

GBP/USD: Iran shock risk for the UK – BNY

Mitsubishi UFJ: If the Federal Reserve emphasizes inflation risks, the US dollar may rise.

Gold: Rising oil clouds Fed easing hopes – OCBC

The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's assessment of rising inflation and its policy path.

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

Australia’s inflation remained above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band as higher fuel costs from Middle East supply disruptions compounded already-elevated price pressures to keep policymakers on a tightening path.

Uncertainty around the economic outlook and a leadership transition at the US central bank loom large over this week’s meeting of Federal Reserve officials, who are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

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