POLI currently faces the dual-edged effects of structural liquidity shortage and on-chain transparency: In the short term, constrained by the existing binary options model and market-making thresholds, market activity is obviously divided, making large fluctuations more likely. It is advised to pay attention to the support and resistance range of 0.14-0.17 USDT. Mid-term, the addition of diverse forecasting scenarios such as real estate is expected to broaden funding sources and deepen market liquidity. Long-term, it is necessary to continuously strengthen the advantages of compliance and transparency, and promote the launch of perpetual products to improve capital efficiency. Overall, a cautious approach is recommended for the short term, while the medium and long-term outlook is positive. It is suggested to keep the allocation ratio within 20% of high-risk portfolios and wait for structural optimization before increasing holdings.

POLI is recently under pressure from the local optimum trap of the entire prediction market. The current binary options model faces difficulties in breaking through liquidity and capital efficiency, and due to high barriers to market-making, participants on both bullish and bearish sides are scarce. The price is thus prone to larger fluctuations following withdrawal of core liquidity providers in the short term. Historical data further shows that short-term contracts (less than 1 day) have extremely low trading activity, with more than 60% of markets having no trading within 24 hours, reflecting cautious market sentiment and insufficient small-scale participation. A shift to perpetual contract models, as advocated in the industry, is expected to alleviate this structural bottleneck over the medium and long term, enhancing overall liquidity and prompting a revaluation.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

The POLI platform is renowned for complete on-chain transparency, allowing global users real-time access to all on-chain capital flows. This advantage strengthens market trust and draws attention from compliance-focused institutions. However, ongoing discussions within the community criticizing potential internal transactions continue. Third-party analyses have pointed out methodological flaws, such as excessively long time windows and non-unique asset attribution, but uncertainty in regulation and compliance remains a focal point for both institutions and retail investors in the short term. Overall, enhanced transparency benefits long-term value construction, but may amplify short-term sentiment volatility while relevant news circulates.

1confirmation founder Nick stated that Polymarket is an on-chain intelligence tool accessible and fully transparent to anyone worldwide. Before Maduro's arrest, those monitoring on-chain data had already received warnings. While smart governments also use it, its uniqueness lies in providing a fair competitive environment for everyone.

1confirmation Founder: Polymarket is an on-chain intelligence tool.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

On January 5th, Polymarket launched a real estate prediction market, opening up new application scenarios for POLI. Compared to short-term crypto contracts, the real estate market has a larger participant base and more concentrated hedging demand, potentially attracting more institutional market-makers in the medium term and thus deepening liquidity. Although trading on the first day was mainly institutionally driven, as market operation improves and pricing mechanisms are optimized, retail participation is expected to gradually recover. If liquidity gains in the real estate sector can be replicated across other macro political or commodity forecasting areas, POLI's ecosystem structure will be further optimized.

Polymarket announced it will launch a real estate prediction market on January 5, enabling users to bet on housing price trends.

Polymarket will launch a real estate prediction market, allowing users to bet on housing price trends.

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