SLIPPY has recently stabilized in a key support range, with short-term rebound momentum benefiting from increased liquidity and long-side entry. However, trading volume has not expanded effectively, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rebound. It is recommended to control positions when chasing rallies, with a focus on monitoring the volume-price dynamics within the 1.05-1.12 range. In the medium to long term, platform liquidity remains highly dependent on top market makers, and structural divergence intensifies asset volatility. Mainstream capital flows could drive the overall health of the ecosystem. It is advised to closely assess platform subsidy strategies and the participation level of leading funds, aiming to enhance the quality of market liquidity and optimize price discovery and risk management.

Recently, the market has shown initial signs of recovery, with overall crypto assets rebounding from the bottom amid rising liquidity. After a previous downtrend, SLIPPY has stabilized with fluctuations in the key support area. Short-term trading volume and transaction fees have seen a slight uptick, indicating that bulls are attempting to position in the bottom zone. However, confirmation of the bottom requires further momentum. If volume fails to expand sustainably or faces macro sentiment reversal, the trend may return to range-bound volatility. Traders are advised to maintain position discipline when going long and closely monitor changes in volume and order book dynamics to avoid retracement risks caused by false breakouts.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

From a macro liquidity perspective, prediction markets and market-making models have high dependence on professional market makers, while retail investors and new projects are disadvantaged in liquidity allocation. SLIPPY trading pairs are prone to sparse order books and intensified price jumps during thin trading periods, impacting price discovery efficiency. Although the platform offers incentives to top market makers, ongoing support for diversified assets is limited, resulting in liquidity concentration among a few mainstream tokens. Looking ahead, for SLIPPY to achieve a healthier trading environment in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to platform subsidy strategies and the commitment of large asset managers, while tracking the transmission effect of mainstream capital flows on secondary markets.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

SLIPPY

Reminder: Please pay special attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

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