SPLD is currently constrained by liquidity exhaustion and sentiment volatility, with concentrated trading activity and insufficient market depth raising the risk of price jumps. The entry threshold for market participation has increased, so it is advisable to control positions and remain on the sidelines for now, guarding against liquidity shock risks. In the medium to long term, if the platform successfully introduces perpetual contracts, it will optimize capital efficiency and significantly enhance market activity and depth, creating a structural opportunity for value revaluation. It is recommended to closely monitor the progress of related mechanisms. Pricing strategies should prioritize spot trading and gradual allocation at lower prices. Realization of long-term value still depends on actual advances in ecosystem building and product innovation. In the short term, reasonable price fluctuation range is suggested to be within ±10%.

Recently, SPLD has been consolidating within a narrow range, with consistently low daily trading volume, reflecting the current issue of insufficient market liquidity. In the short-term contract market, trading concentration is high, with a few popular contracts taking up most of the volume, while the majority of contracts are thinly traded. This leads to increased price jumps, rising volatility, and insufficient depth. In this environment, market makers face significant inventory risk and must frequently rebalance to maintain coherent quotes, but the market is easily driven by one-sided information, raising the entry barrier for retail and new participants. In the short term, sentiment is tilted towards caution and observation.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

PANews analyzed 295,000 historical markets on Polymarket, revealing that 63.16% of short-term markets (under 1 day) had zero transactions in 24 hours. Short-term crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, with sports markets averaging $1.32 million in volume, 30 times higher than crypto's $44,000. A small number of top contracts (505) account for 47% of total volume. Long-term markets (>30 days) have 45 times more liquidity, led by US politics. Geopolitical markets are the fastest-growing segment. Polymarket is polarizing into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro political hedging," with liquidity concentrated in few top narratives.

PANews data: 63% of the short-term market on Polymarket had 0 transactions in the last 24 hours, with 505 top contracts accounting for 47% of the trading volume.

Facing the bottleneck of the binary option model in terms of capital efficiency and liquidity, the industry is calling for a transition to a perpetual contract model to build a more universal and liquid prediction market. If the platform hosting SPLD can introduce perpetual contracts, it would optimize position flexibility, reduce capital occupation costs, and, through a continuous funding rate mechanism, keep contract prices closely tied to spot prices. If this transformation is implemented, it could bring greater market depth and participation for the token, favoring long-term value revaluation.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

The overall crypto market is transitioning from a deleveraging stage to a period of moderate expansion. The capital structure is increasingly geared towards spot positions, reducing forced liquidation risk and creating a more stable price environment. Against this backdrop, SPLD may experience a short-term sentiment boost, but vigilance is needed as a surge in leverage without price support could worsen subsequent corrections. In the context of steady capital inflows, the long-term value of the token still hinges on the real-world materialization of platform ecosystem and product innovation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Splendor

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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Splendor Price: SPLD Live Price Today | SPLD Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-ge

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SPLD price today is 0.26, with a live price change of -0.77 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade SPLD on Bybit-ge.

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