Currently, SWAY is impacted by a liquidity bottleneck and shrinking trading activity, resulting in price range fluctuations and a lack of short-term breakout momentum. Although there has been marginal liquidity improvement in the crypto market recently, the rebound mostly stems from sentiment recovery. Trading volume and fees have not seen sustained expansion, making it difficult to support a medium- to long-term rally. In the longer term, if the ecosystem successfully transitions to a perpetual contract mechanism and introduces high leverage and deep liquidity, it could drive capital efficiency and attract institutional participation, enabling the token to command a higher premium. Strategic suggestion: In the short term, follow the trend and participate in the rebound, but for medium- and long-term positions, wait until the perpetual mechanism is implemented and structural liquidity improves before establishing positions. At this stage, strictly control the risk of chasing highs and focus on volatility opportunities in the 0.9–1.1 range.

Recently, SWAY's candlestick performance on exchanges has shown low volatility and sideways consolidation, with trading volume continuing to shrink, reflecting heightened wait-and-see sentiment on both the buyer and seller sides. This is consistent with the characteristics of binary options in prediction markets, where capital efficiency is low and liquidity is scarce, making effective short-term price breakouts difficult. Market makers face inventory risk exposure, and prices often experience unilateral gaps due to discrete events and information asymmetry, further increasing volatility pressure. In the short term, if no significant liquidity stimulus occurs, SWAY is likely to maintain its range-bound pattern.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Signs of marginal liquidity improvement in the overall crypto market have triggered preliminary bottoming signals in certain indicators. In the short term, minor upticks in premium spreads and trading depth are helping to boost bullish sentiment. However, from a broader cyclical perspective, trading volume and fees have not shown consistent expansion, making it hard to support a medium- and long-term bull run. As such, the current rebound appears to be more of a sentiment-driven correction, and investors should approach it cautiously, avoiding excessive buying at sentiment peaks.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Given that the current prediction market model is stuck in a local optimum trap, calls for an upgrade and transition to perpetual contracts are growing. If SWAY's underlying market structure can introduce high leverage and no expiration mechanisms, it will substantially improve capital efficiency and liquidity depth, thereby attracting more institutions and high-frequency market makers. Additionally, market narratives are shifting toward political and geopolitical event hedging, and a high-sticky user base is expected to bring long-term value support and network effects premium to SWAY.

In a clearly defined bull-bear cycle environment, following trends is safer than attempting to catch bottoms or tops. At the current stage, short-term speculators may participate moderately during the sentiment rebound phase; while for medium- and long-term investors, it is advisable to wait for the market's liquidity structure adjustment to complete and to confirm the launch of the perpetual mechanism before increasing their positions, in order to gain access to greater liquidity and arbitrage volatility opportunities.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Sway Social

After the release of U.S. economic data, the probability expectation of an interest rate hike slightly increased.

US Q1 PCE Price Index annualized quarterly rate preliminary value 4.5%, exceeding expectations

US Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year Rises to 3.2% in March

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, with officials signaling they need more time to assess the extent of the Iran war’s jolt to the economy.

The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged as expected.

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged as expected.

Rising Fuel Prices Could Force Excruciating Choices on Economic Policies

A Small Change at the FED Caused Bitcoin to Fall! – Wall Street Giant Morgan Stanley Revised Its FED Interest Rate Forecasts After Yesterday’s...

Euro zone inflation soars further above ECB target on oil prices

BoE: Holding fire with two-sided risks – Deutsche Bank

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