TREE is currently in a phase of range-bound consolidation. The $0.068–$0.070 support zone is holding effectively, with limited downside in the short term due to prevailing risk-off sentiment. The $0.077–$0.078 area serves as key resistance; a breakout with volume could lead to a challenge of the $0.082–$0.085 medium-term target. Given the increasing impact of macro liquidity and ETF capital flows, it is recommended to capitalize on buying opportunities near support, employ a staggered entry strategy, and gradually reduce positions to lock in gains at resistance levels. Remain attentive to potential volatility stemming from macro and geopolitical events.

On May 8, global markets saw a rise in risk aversion, leading to notable pullbacks in major crypto assets. TREE’s price gradually fell from a high of $0.0722 to around $0.0694. Trading volume declined, signaling increasing selling pressure. On the macro front, climbing US Treasury yields and concerns about energy-driven inflation dampened risk appetite, prompting ETF flows to turn from net inflows to net outflows. This cautious sentiment drove bulls to take profits, causing a temporary retracement for the token.

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after five consecutive days of net inflows into spot ETFs ended, signaling a cooling rebound from February lows. Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data heightened concerns over energy-driven inflation limiting rate cuts. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows, reflecting reduced institutional risk appetite. Rising US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices up, offsetting some risk asset support. Derivatives suggest prolonged hawkish rate expectations, with retail participation low and market momentum weak, posing a risk of Bitcoin retesting $75,000–$78,000 support.

Analysis: Bitcoin surged then fell back below $80K, with ETF outflows and geopolitical risks jointly suppressing market sentiment.

Earlier, on May 6, easing global geopolitical tensions and renewed momentum in the tech sector accelerated institutional inflows into risk assets, reigniting ETF net inflows and market vitality. TREE rebounded from around $0.0690, breaking out on consecutive days with increased volume and hitting a high of $0.0774 on May 11, marking a return to the upper boundary of its previous consolidation range. The surge in trading volume during the rebound indicated elevated interest from professional investors, confirming a medium-term bullish phase for the token.

Global markets surged as geopolitical tensions eased, with major indices hitting record highs and the Korean KOSPI soaring 6.45%. In tech, semiconductor and AI-related stocks rallied strongly. Bitcoin broke $80,000, driven by institutional ETF inflows, though on-chain activity showed low retail participation. Opinions diverge on Bitcoin's outlook, with some seeing a fragile rally and others bullish due to strong accumulation and ETF demand. TON ecosystem also gained momentum after Telegram's increased involvement.

Trading Moment: Global Asset Frenzy, Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, $84,000 CME Gap Awaiting Refill.

Technical analysis shows the $0.068–$0.070 range has repeatedly proven to be strong support, with concentrated buying in the short term. The $0.077–$0.078 zone is a cluster of short-term resistance; a decisive break here could pave the way for a challenge of the medium-term $0.082–$0.085 target. With market expectations around macro rates and events such as blockchain ETF launches in flux, token prices are expected to remain in range-bound volatility, potentially with heightened swings. Strategy: accumulate near the support zone using a staggered entry; if prices recover to the resistance zone, consider taking partial profits, and closely monitor ETF flows and geopolitical events for sentiment shocks.

Tree

Ball: Reducing the balance sheet size or increasing the frequency of Federal Reserve market interventions

Federal Reserve's Williams indicates monetary policy is slightly tight, with no reason for rate hikes or cuts.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 96.8%, and the probability of keeping them unchanged in July is 93.8%.

Williams: Considering inflation remains persistently above target, the context is crucial.

The Bank of England should raise interest rates to fight off strong inflation spillovers from the Iran energy shock, according to its chief economist who set out his case for active policy in an unpredictable world.

TD Securities: The US dollar may still weaken even if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates.

Federal Reserve's Schmied: Inflation remains the biggest risk, but the US economy shows resilience.

Schmidt: Persistent inflation is the most urgent risk facing the economy.

Why bitcoin’s recent climb to $80,000 might just be a temporary liquidity squeeze

Fed: Extended pause before cautious easing – UOB

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TREE price today is 0.19, with a live price change of 4.45 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade TREE on Bybit-ge.

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