The current Xianxia token market is experiencing a bullish recovery, with spot demand driving price rebounds and risk exposure significantly narrowing. It is recommended to maintain medium- to long-term bullish positions, focusing on mainstream trading pairs and leading platforms with deep liquidity. In the short term, highly fragmented liquidity and information asymmetry intensify trading slippage and rebalancing risks; therefore, only those with professional market-making and hedging capabilities are advised to engage in volatility strategies. The target price range is expected to remain in a short-term upward trajectory (e.g., within +8%), with positions built in batches and aggressive exposure controlled during sharp fluctuations.

Since the beginning of the year, market sentiment has gradually improved, with multiple indicators showing that a bullish-led uptrend structure is taking shape. On-chain data analysts point out that the crypto market is rebounding from the previous de-leveraging phase, the Z-Score indicator has turned positive, confirming renewed market confidence, and price increases are mainly driven by spot demand. Position openings are stabilizing, and liquidation risks are effectively managed. Additionally, prominent investors emphasize that value and trends are core to profitability, with short-term bears making their final stand before gradually retreating. Overall, short-term sentiment is positive, medium- to long-term trends are further confirmed, and bullish forces are prevailing.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Prediction markets are primarily based on order book models. In the face of intense discrete events and information asymmetry, liquidity is highly concentrated on leading platforms and a few top contracts. Data shows that short-term market transactions are scarce, with most contracts seeing no trading within 24 hours; meanwhile, the long-term market demonstrates clear advantages in political and geopolitical themes. In this structure, newcomers face inventory management and slippage risks, and only professional teams with proactive market-making and risk hedging capabilities can generate stable profits. For Xianxia tokens, it is vital to focus on the depth and capital distribution of the trading pair to avoid liquidity gaps during extreme market volatility.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

PANews analyzed 295,000 historical markets on Polymarket, revealing that 63.16% of short-term markets (under 1 day) had zero transactions in 24 hours. Short-term crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, with sports markets averaging $1.32 million in volume, 30 times higher than crypto's $44,000. A small number of top contracts (505) account for 47% of total volume. Long-term markets (>30 days) have 45 times more liquidity, led by US politics. Geopolitical markets are the fastest-growing segment. Polymarket is polarizing into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro political hedging," with liquidity concentrated in few top narratives.

PANews data: 63% of the short-term market on Polymarket had 0 transactions in the last 24 hours, with 505 top contracts accounting for 47% of the trading volume.

修仙 (XiuXian)

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