YUP is currently in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with prices yet to effectively break through key resistance levels and limited follow-through in trading volume. Signals of trend reversal remain insufficient. It is recommended that investors focus on a trend-trading framework, adopt a mid-term wait-and-see approach, control position sizes, and only increase positions moderately after a breakthrough with strong volume. For short-term operations, risks must be strictly controlled to avoid chasing highs in highly volatile zones with thin liquidity and concentrated limit orders, as this can lead to slippage and liquidation. The overall strategy should prioritize defense, closely monitor the price-volume relationship and market structure changes, and strictly avoid blind heavy positions.

Recent trends show that after previous consolidation, YUP prices have started to edge upward slightly. Although trading volume hasn't increased significantly, signs of overall market sentiment improvement are emerging. At this stage, investors need to be vigilant against false early reversal signals and must not abandon defensive positions prematurely. On the technical side, prices have not yet broken through key resistance levels, and medium-to-long-term moving averages remain flat, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Only with sustained surges in volume and a breakout above the trendline can a new upward trend be considered valid.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

The investment logic of increasing positions during bull markets and reducing during bear markets applies equally well to YUP. The overall market direction remains to be confirmed. From a mid- to long-term value perspective, if a clear upward trend emerges later, investors can consider scaling in by phases. Since accurately timing the peaks and troughs is difficult, a trend-based asset allocation strategy can smooth returns and lower timing risks. Meanwhile, the market is gradually differentiating; seasoned investors tend to stick to established frameworks without being overly swayed by short-term sentiment.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Derivatives and prediction markets where YUP is traded still face scarce liquidity, with insufficient depth in short-term contract trading and vulnerability to large one-sided orders and sudden events causing sudden price jumps. Furthermore, market makers operating in the order book model face inventory risk and must constantly adjust positions to hedge exposures, further limiting long-term profit potential for new entrants. Short-term traders are advised to monitor zones with concentrated large orders and avoid chasing highs near intraday peaks during illiquid and oscillating phases, to prevent slippage and liquidation risks.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

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