ZBT is under short-term pressure due to a decline in macro risk appetite and the outflow of institutional funds, having significantly retraced from its previous high of 0.275 to the 0.17 range. The daily structure shows intensified divergence between bulls and bears. In the short term, the main resistance lies between 0.18–0.20, while key support is at 0.165–0.17. Given the heightened market volatility and cautious capital sentiment, investors are advised to wait for favorable macro signals such as a Fed rate cut or net ETF inflows. Consider phased buying in the 0.165–0.17 region, and cut losses promptly if support fails to control potential drawdown risks.

Recently, the strengthening US dollar and better-than-expected US April employment data have reignited inflation concerns, increasing market expectations that the Fed will delay rate cuts. Meanwhile, the consecutive net inflows into institutional ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum have come to an end, with large capital outflows resulting in a broad downturn in crypto asset risk appetite. As a high-beta small-cap token, ZBT has followed the broader market in a clear sentiment-driven retracement, dropping rapidly from its April 26 high of 0.27523 to about 0.17 currently, reflecting short-term risk-off sentiment prevailing.

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after five consecutive days of net inflows into spot ETFs ended, signaling a cooling rebound from February lows. Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data heightened concerns over energy-driven inflation limiting rate cuts. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows, reflecting reduced institutional risk appetite. Rising US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices up, offsetting some risk asset support. Derivatives suggest prolonged hawkish rate expectations, with retail participation low and market momentum weak, posing a risk of Bitcoin retesting $75,000–$78,000 support.

Analysis: Bitcoin surged then fell back below $80K, with ETF outflows and geopolitical risks jointly suppressing market sentiment.

Global markets surged as geopolitical tensions eased, with major indices hitting record highs and the Korean KOSPI soaring 6.45%. In tech, semiconductor and AI-related stocks rallied strongly. Bitcoin broke $80,000, driven by institutional ETF inflows, though on-chain activity showed low retail participation. Opinions diverge on Bitcoin's outlook, with some seeing a fragile rally and others bullish due to strong accumulation and ETF demand. TON ecosystem also gained momentum after Telegram's increased involvement.

Trading Moment: Global Asset Frenzy, Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, $84,000 CME Gap Awaiting Refill.

From the daily chart perspective, after a sharp surge in late April, ZBT experienced a peak and subsequent pullback. The past several candlesticks mainly displayed consecutive declines and small real-body choppy trading, with noticeably shrinking volumes. Prices have repeatedly been blocked in the 0.18–0.20 range, while initial support on the downside is concentrated near 0.17; a further breakdown may test the 0.165 level. Short-term moving averages are arranged in a death cross pattern, and MACD histogram has contracted during the pullback, indicating a decline in bullish momentum. Without a significant volume increase, it will be hard to break through previous highs, and a range-bound pattern is likely to continue.

Judging by implied volatility and capital flows, Bitcoin options volatility has risen sharply, suggesting the crypto market may continue to see intensified and occasionally erratic short-term moves. ZBT is unlikely to avoid broader market turmoil in the near term, but if Fed rate cut expectations are renewed or global risk appetite improves, the token could rebound. Investors should watch for staged buying opportunities in the 0.165–0.17 range, and if there are signs of renewed net ETF inflows or macro easing signals, ZBT may regain upward momentum. However, if support below is lost, be wary of the risk of further correction.

Glassnode analysis shows Bitcoin breaking key resistance to reach $82,000-$83,000, ending weeks of narrow trading and restoring market volatility. Short-term 1-week implied volatility rebounded about 6 points, with moderate long-term volatility and rapid recovery in short-term trading demand. Sentiment and positioning shifted to neutral, reducing downside hedging, with short-term bearish and long-term bullish outlooks. Implied volatility exceeds realized volatility, with a $2 billion short gamma cluster near $82,000 potentially amplifying volatility. In the past 24 hours, 81% of options sold were calls, indicating a market leaning toward consolidation.

Data: Bitcoin market volatility reverts, options volatility and market sentiment recover in sync

Bitcoin has surged from around $63,000 to over $80,000 in three months, with key on-chain, futures, and options indicators pointing to a target of $85,000. On-chain data shows BTC breaking key support levels, futures funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral reducing short pressure, and options market makers hold significant short gamma exposure near $82,000, potentially driving further price gains. However, Bitcoin remains correlated with tech stocks, so risk-off moves in equities could limit upside momentum.

Data: Analysis: On-chain data, futures, and options triple signal resonance, BTC may rise to $85,000

ZEROBASE

Tuesday’s CPI report will be a “spicier” set of figures, the first in a series of readings this week that will feed into the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, according to Morgan Stanley’s global head of macro strategy.

Goldman Sachs & Co and Bank of America Corp are the latest in a growing cohort of Wall Street banks pushing back their forecasts for interest-rate cuts.

British Pound: Growth slowdown and BoE tightening – BNP Paribas

Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank's surprise hike and risk support – HSBC

Eurozone: Higher inflation and ECB hikes projected – BNP Paribas

Brazilian economists raised their interest rate forecast for next year as inflation comes under pressure from resilient domestic demand and an energy shock caused by the Iran war.

Japanese Yen: Intervention and BoJ policy in focus – HSBC

Fed: Extended pause before late 2026 cut – UOB

2024–2026: Asset repricing amid persistently high interest rates

Mitsubishi UFJ: Stalemate in US-Iran negotiations intensifies inflation concerns, causing gold prices to drop.

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